computing quantitative futures mapping accurate understanding generating probable understanding assembling calibrated predictions computing predictive contingencies mapping the future composing calibrated understanding predicting calibrated predictions assembling definitive predictions exploring critical estimations crowdsourcing predictive insights composing calibrated estimations composing accurate predictions composing contingent contingencies


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?

With the launching of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX passed a major milestone; yet an even bigger milestone would be bringing a human into space, something SpaceX is yet to do.

The Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is scheduled for August 2018; the first manned flight is planned for December. There was also is a plan for SpaceX to fly two private individuals around the moon in late 2018, yet it seems that this could only occur after the first crewed test flight of Dragon V2, whatever its date ends up being, and it will probably be the "BFR" that does such flights instead.

The first crewed flight will be a decisive moment in SpaceX's history. Should the launch succeed it would be a major step forward, yet if it should fail, killing the crew, it would be a much larger, and potentially lethal, step backwards for the company.

It is asked:Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?

Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.