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Attempted crewed SpaceX flight in 2018?
With the launching of Falcon Heavy, SpaceX passed a major milestone; yet an even bigger milestone would be bringing a human into space, something SpaceX is yet to do.
The Dragon V2, SpaceX's first crewed spacecraft, is still in development and an uncrewed test-flight is scheduled for August 2018; the first manned flight is planned for December. There was also is a plan for SpaceX to fly two private individuals around the moon in late 2018, yet it seems that this could only occur after the first crewed test flight of Dragon V2, whatever its date ends up being, and it will probably be the "BFR" that does such flights instead.
The first crewed flight will be a decisive moment in SpaceX's history. Should the launch succeed it would be a major step forward, yet if it should fail, killing the crew, it would be a much larger, and potentially lethal, step backwards for the company.
It is asked:Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2019 at 00:00 UTC?
Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.