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Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?

An outbreak of Ebola virus disease was identified by the World Health Organization in early May 2018 in the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In initial reports 27 cases of hemorrhagic fever were reported, with 17 deaths. Two of the cases were confirmed as ebola.

At the time of this writing an additional two cases of ebola have been confirmed, with 11 more suspected.

Will this outbreak be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola?

Resolution will be based on WHO data when they declare the outbreak over.

Categories: Biology – Infectious Disease, Series – Pandemics

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.