formulating quantitative wisdom delivering precise predictions delivering definitive predictions formulating predictive predictions crowdsourcing quantitative predictions mapping the future forecasting calibrated estimations aggregating predictive wisdom computing definitive estimations predicting contingent contingencies composing probable understanding composing intelligent predictions composing intelligent insights composing predictive contingencies
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the current Ebola outbreak be contained to under 50 cases?

An outbreak of Ebola virus disease was identified by the World Health Organization in early May 2018 in the Bikoro region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In initial reports 27 cases of hemorrhagic fever were reported, with 17 deaths. Two of the cases were confirmed as ebola.

At the time of this writing an additional two cases of ebola have been confirmed, with 11 more suspected.

Will this outbreak be contained to less than 50 cases of Ebola?

Resolution will be based on WHO data when they declare the outbreak over.

Categories: Biology – Infectious Disease, Series – Pandemics

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.