How it works
Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest
Whether you're a newcomer or a seasoned Metaculus forecaster, this tournament has some unique features we want to highlight.
Contest Timeline
Warmup Questions
Practice forecasting with our warmup questions before the contest begins April 16th. Warmup questions won’t affect your contest ranking.
The Forecasting Contest officially begins at 11:00 AM ET on April 16, 2024.
One Contest, Two Leaderboards for Undergraduate and Open Competitions
This contest consists of a single set of 50 forecasting questions, with two separate competitions and leaderboards that differentiate all competitors under the banner of the Open Competition from undergraduate competitors within the Undergraduate Competition.
$25,000 In Prizes
Each of the two competitions and leaderboards features a $12,500 prize pool, for a total of $25,000. The top 125 forecasters within each competition and leaderboard will win prizes, with a minimum payout of $50 per prize. Competing undergraduate forecasters are eligible to be ranked and receive prizes for their performance on both leaderboards. Prizes will be awarded after contest completion and following identity verification.Undergraduate Competition and Leaderboard
The Undergraduate competition and leaderboard are open only to undergraduate students currently enrolled in colleges and universities within the United States. If you enroll in the Undergraduate Competition, you will automatically also be included in the Open Competition. This is your opportunity to stand out to the Bridgewater recruiting team and compete for a share of the $12,500 Undergraduate Prize Pool!Open Competition and Leaderboard
Alongside the Undergraduate Competition and Leaderboard, there is an Open Competition and Leaderboard in which all current residents of the United States can compete, with an associated $12,500 Open Prize Pool. Experienced and new forecasters alike will have the chance to demonstrate their skills and become eligible for a potential meeting with the Bridgewater recruitment team.Advice for new forecasters
New to forecasting? No problem. Here’s how to get ahead:
- Begin early and forecast on many questions. You need volume to beat the noise.
- Consider base rates: how have similar events gone in the past?
- Consider diverse points of view: good forecasters cover all angles.
- Stay informed with the latest news, and keep your forecasts updated; agility is key.
Useful Resources
Whether you're a beginner or looking to brush up your skills, here are some resources:
- How to forecast on Metaculus
- How prize is distributed in Metaculus tournaments
- Prediction Resources
- Warmup with Practice Questions
A message from Bridgewater
The foundation of Bridgewater is our mission to deeply understand how the world works and translate that understanding into unique market insights, aligning with Metaculus' mission—a platform for forecasting and modeling future events and trends. We hope this partnership reaches more people who see the power of using data and research to comprehend the world around us. Join now to showcase your skills and take part in this exciting tournament!
Questions? Contact Us
Don’t hesitate to reach out to us at contact@metaculus.com We read and respond to every email!
How to Forecast on Metaculus
Binary and Multiple Choice Questions
Examples: “Who will be Japan’s next Prime Minister?”, “Will NASA’s Artemis 2 launch be successful?”, …
To predict, share the probability you give the outcome as a number between 0.1% and 99.9%. On the question page, simply drag the prediction slider until it matches your probability and click “Predict”. You can also use the arrows to refine your probability or select the field and type the probability.
Multiple choice questions ask about more than two (Yes/No) possibilities. Predicting works the same, except your predictions should sum to 100%. After inputting probabilities, select auto-sum to guarantee they do.
The higher the probability you place on the correct outcome, the better (more positive) your score will be. Give the correct outcome a low probability and you’ll receive a bad (negative) score. Under Metaculus scoring, you’ll get the best score by predicting what you think the actual probability is, rather than trying to “game” the scoring.
Numerical and Date Questions
Examples: “When will humans land on Mars?”, “What will Germany’s GDP growth be in 2025?”, …
To predict, provide a distribution, representing how likely you think each outcome in a range is. On the question page, drag the slider to change the shape of your bell curve, and focus your prediction on values you think are likely.
If you want to distribute your prediction in more than one section of the range, you can add up to four independent bell curves to build your distribution and assign a weight to each of them.
The higher your distribution is on the value that ultimately occurs, the better your score. The lower your distribution on the actual value, the worse your score. To get the best score, make your distribution reflect how likely each possible value actually is.