Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
Question
In what year will there will be High Level Machine Intelligence which can accomplish every cognitive task better and more cheaply than human workers?
Total Forecasters15
Community Prediction
04 Aug 2028
(06 Jan 2027 - Jan 2032)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 06 Jan 2027 | — |
| median | 04 Aug 2028 | — |
| upper 75% | Jan 2032 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2069 | 0.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2069
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024
Authors:
Opened:Dec 4, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2069
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2070
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 9, 2024