Question
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Total Forecasters1660
Community Prediction
20 Apr 2027
(16 Dec 2025 - 17 Jun 2030)
Make a Prediction
CDF
Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
<Mar 2020 | 0.1% | — |
Quartiles | ||
lower 25% | 16 Dec 2025 | — |
median | 20 Apr 2027 | — |
upper 75% | 17 Jun 2030 | — |
Upper bound | ||
>2200 | 1.6% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Jan 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2200
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2020