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AI Warning Signs

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6 Questions

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30 forecasters

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

98%chance

2% this week

20 forecasters

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

27%chance

7% this week

21 forecasters

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

95%chance

29 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

70%chance

58 forecasters

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

86%chance

Key Factors

Independent:
AI-powered computer worms herald ‘new era’ of cybersecurity threats

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