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AI Warning Signs
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11
forecasters
Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?
62.8%
chance
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7
forecasters
Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?
99%
chance
1
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15
forecasters
Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?
31%
chance
3
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12
forecasters
Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
85%
chance
1
comment
12
forecasters
Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?
95%
chance
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