M

/

Questions

AI Warning Signs

14 Followers

6 Questions

Moderated by Haiku

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

46 forecasters

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

86%chance

Key Factors

Independent:
AI-powered computer worms herald ‘new era’ of cybersecurity threats

17 forecasters

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

31%chance

23 forecasters

Before 2030, will a foundation-model-based AI system make $50M in realized profits from not more than $1M of traditional investments and trades?

60%chance

26 forecasters

Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

99%chance

21 forecasters

Will a tool that can easily generate whole-cloth generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

95%chance

Suggest Questions for the AI Warning Signs Community