Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

Question

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters12

Community Prediction

70%

(33% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

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Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

AI tech heads in a frightening direction

American Thinker•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?

Authors:

Haiku

Opened:

Jan 18, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 18, 2025

AI Warning Signs

Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Today’s AI Could Make Pandemics 5 Times More Likely

Time•Jul 1, 2025

AI tech heads in a frightening direction

American Thinker•Jul 1, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

95%

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%