80 forecasters

Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?

99.9%chance

99.9%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 100% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2025

Resolved:

Feb 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

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Social Sciences

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Kash Patel on thin ice as FBI director after Trump taps new ‘co-deputy’ amid Charlie Kirk case criticism: report

Independent•Sep 15, 2025

Kash Patel's Chances of Exiting FBI Surge Over Handling of Charlie Kirk

Newsweek•Sep 15, 2025

FBI’s Kash Patel faces criticisms from within the Trump administration

MSNBC•Sep 15, 2025

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