Question

Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?

Resolved:Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters80

Community Prediction

99.9%

(99.8% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

2.5

Community Baseline Score

12.1

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Kash Patel's office 'seems to have tipped off NY Post' to John Bolton FBI raid: reporter

Raw Story•Aug 22, 2025

FBI association accuses Director Kash Patel of violating due process in high-profile firings

CNN•Aug 21, 2025

Kash Patel Says He’s Doing Two Things To Hold FBI Accountable For Targeting Trump

Daily Caller•Aug 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

10%

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

12%

Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?

72%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jul 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jul 2, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Kash Patel's office 'seems to have tipped off NY Post' to John Bolton FBI raid: reporter

Raw Story•Aug 22, 2025

FBI association accuses Director Kash Patel of violating due process in high-profile firings

CNN•Aug 21, 2025

Kash Patel Says He’s Doing Two Things To Hold FBI Accountable For Targeting Trump

Daily Caller•Aug 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

10%

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

12%

Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?

72%