Question

Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters107

Community Prediction

13%

(10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

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Trump's 'quick reaction force' executive order is an emergency

MSNBC•Aug 29, 2025

MORNING GLORY: President Trump and the Posse Comitatus Act

FOX News•Aug 28, 2025

Following LA and DC, Trump wants to send the military to other US cities. Here’s how he can do it

CNN•Aug 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

16.1%

Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?

Authors:

jack.andolina

Opened:

Jan 31, 2025

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 31, 2025

Bright Line Watch Tournament

Social Sciences

Politics

2025 Leaderboard

Trump's 'quick reaction force' executive order is an emergency

MSNBC•Aug 29, 2025

MORNING GLORY: President Trump and the Posse Comitatus Act

FOX News•Aug 28, 2025

Following LA and DC, Trump wants to send the military to other US cities. Here’s how he can do it

CNN•Aug 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?

Will the Trump administration announce a suspension of habeas corpus before January 20, 2029?

16.1%