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21
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119
forecasters
Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?
15%
chance
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ICE protests expanding to other US cities
Impact
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7 votes
Summer weather prolongs protest activities
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8 votes
Title 10 allows federalizing troops domestically
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Decreases Likelihood
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3 votes
Protests in DC specifically.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
2 votes
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Authors:
jack.andolina
Opened:
Jan 31, 2025
Closes:
Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:
Jan 31, 2025
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Bush and Obama lawyers warn Trump could challenge 2026 election results if midterms don’t go his way
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Nov 13, 2025
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