Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

Question

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

no comments0

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction

77%

(70% - 80%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 77%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2025

Foresight Institute

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Declining public trust in AI is a national-security problem

Defense One•Jun 25, 2025

Bipartisan bill seeks to ban Chinese AI from federal agencies, as U.S. vows to win the AI race

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

For America to Win the AI Race, Keep Government's Hands Off

Townhall•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Feb 21, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 21, 2025

Foresight Institute

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Declining public trust in AI is a national-security problem

Defense One•Jun 25, 2025

Bipartisan bill seeks to ban Chinese AI from federal agencies, as U.S. vows to win the AI race

Associated Press•Jun 25, 2025

For America to Win the AI Race, Keep Government's Hands Off

Townhall•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

15%

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

25%

Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?

20%