20
115 forecasters

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

6%chance
Top Key Factors
Emerging global AI safety dialogues and multilateral summits.
Increases Likelihood
geopolitical competition
Increases Likelihood
Verification challenges in AGI development.
Decreases Likelihood
Economic interdependence and reputational incentives.
Increases Likelihood
Intensifying U.S.–China strategic rivalry in AI and defense sectors.
Increases Likelihood
China - US AI race likely to get worse
Decreases Likelihood
lack of cooperation
Decreases Likelihood
Impossible to setup a trusted process to check the opponent
Decreases Likelihood