Question
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
Total Forecasters223
Community Prediction
5%
(3% - 8%)
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
3.8%
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?
5%
Authors:
Opened:Dec 12, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 14, 2024
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
3.8%
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?
5%