Question

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters224

Community Prediction

(2.5% - 8%)

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50%

community: 5%

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Authors:

johnnycaffeine

Opened:

Dec 12, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 14, 2024

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Future Perfect

Health & Pandemics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

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FOX News•Jul 9, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?