Question

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

23 comments23

Total Forecasters1093

Community Prediction

12%

(5% - 20%)

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50%

community: 12%

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Future Perfect

Politics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

What it could mean for the Fed to lose its independence

Associated Press•Aug 31, 2025

How Trump could give the Fed a MAGA makeover

CNN•Aug 28, 2025

Where is Jay Powell?

CNN•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?

25%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

89%

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Dec 20, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 1, 2025

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Future Perfect

Politics

2024-2025 Leaderboard

What it could mean for the Fed to lose its independence

Associated Press•Aug 31, 2025

How Trump could give the Fed a MAGA makeover

CNN•Aug 28, 2025

Where is Jay Powell?

CNN•Aug 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?

25%

Will a new Federal Open Markets Committee member be appointed before any member's term is over and before January 20, 2029?

89%

Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?

22%