6 forecasters

Which party coalition will form the state government following the 2024 Thuringia state election?

CDU+BSW+SPDresult: Yes

Other (re-election or whatever coalition)21.5%

CDU+Left+BSW4.9%

Forecast Timeline

CDU+BSW+SPD

Other (re-election or whatever coalition)

CDU+Left+BSW

Others (2)

Authors:

Opened:

Sep 13, 2024

Closes:

Dec 30, 2024

Resolved:

Dec 12, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 16, 2024

2024 Leaderboard

Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right AfD party the biggest winner in German local elections

PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025

German far right triples support in local election vote, early forecasts show

Independent•Sep 15, 2025

Germany’s ruling CDU wins local elections in key state, as AfD surges

Al Jazeera•Sep 15, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch