Cause

Metaculus causes focus our forecasting efforts on areas that matter most. Learn more about causes in our blog post.
Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
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Keep Virginia Safe Forum
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Healthy Communities

Since the COVID-19 pandemic has wrought destruction on lives and livelihoods — with millions across the world having lost their lives and billions being touched in one way or another – it is currently the focus of our Healthy Communities Forecasting Cause.

The global pandemic has highlighted the danger posed by pathogens with pandemic potential and the need to build resilient community and societal infrastructure and support systems. This is a space for forecasters interested in these topics, and in particular the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic: its epidemiological trajectory, the shifting landscape of variants, vaccine administration and distribution, the pandemic's economic and societal impacts, and more.

We have helped address various aspects of the pandemic in tournaments over the past year — including the Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament, the ongoing Salk Tournament and ongoing Consensus Forecasting to Improve Public Health Tournament. We have also produced several write-ups that bring together forecasts by our community to tell a story, as in an article we've written on how SARS-CoV-2 variants are defining this next phase of the pandemic. We are now bringing these efforts together under a new COVID-19 cause while also announcing an exciting new development — we are partnering with the Virginia Department of Health to launch the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! This will help inform the decision-making of public health officials in Virginia who are weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall.

You can participate in a number of valuable ways:

  • Share your expertise, brainstorm, write questions for forecasting, and update the community with the latest research in the VDH Forum
  • Join the VDH Tournament and make forecasts
  • Increase forecaster rewards by becoming a Supporter
  • Members