Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

6 comments

46 forecasters

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Current estimate

153 $

5 comments

30 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

70%chance

5% this week

3 comments

4 forecasters

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)67.1%

Greater than 50% and less than 53%21.2%

Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%8.9%

Greater than or equal to 56%2.7%

19 comments

74 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Chad Bianco0.1%

Steve Hilton5.6%

Katie Porter0.1%

Xavier Becerra94%

4 others

0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

20 comments

65 forecasters

Community beats Dylan Matthews in Summer 2026 Cup?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 3 days

%chance

Key Factors

Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
vox.com:
Dylan Matthews Profile and Activity | Vox

0 comments

11 forecasters

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

5%chance

3.4k comments

Platform feature suggestions, questions, bug reports

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will Bass be reelected LA Mayor in 2026?

50%chance

37 comments

819 forecasters

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

24%chance

Key Factors

Watered down EO reduces likelihood

0 comments

4 forecasters

Will a CJP protest gather 20k participants before 2027?

55%chance

2 comments

4 forecasters

Airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor

Current estimate

>Jan 2034

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an S-1 with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

60%chance

1 comment

55 forecasters

2026 WSOP Main Event winner total bracelets?

Current estimate

1.77 bracelets

3 comments

10 forecasters

Iceland most peaceful country in 2026-2029?

2026result: Yes

202792.5%

202890%

202987.5%

2 comments

11 forecasters

Will PayPal’s proposed bank receive FDIC approval before July 1, 2027?

50%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

15%chance

35% this week

0 comments

5 forecasters

Will George Santos be arrested before September 1, 2026?

40%chance

0 comments

4 forecasters

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

50%chance

0 comments

6 forecasters

How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?

Current estimate

24.7k jobs

2 comments

3 forecasters

India 55°C (131°F) for 3 Days before 2050?

50%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

36%chance

4 comments

63 forecasters

Will a 2026 World Cup match be delayed due to heat?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 hours

%chance

Key Factors

FIFA's stronger action threshold at 32°C
14 of 16 cities likely exceed 28°C threshold