vlado

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

333.7	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
52.033	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
42.740	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
41.588	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
32.175	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
30.529	Is solid metallic hydrogen metastable at room temperature?	Binary
28.610	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
15.922	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
15.167	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
14.560	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
10.831	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
9.665	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
7.568	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
6.172	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
6.144	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
5.716	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
5.611	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.117	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
5.061	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
4.716	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
4.542	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
4.274	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
3.124	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
2.818	Airships by 2019?	Binary
2.201	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
0.296	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
0.256	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a novel regenerative medicine‐based‐therapy induce excess structural regeneration of digits in rodents?	Binary
0.228	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
0.214	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will a funding round for a private company include a valuation in excess of $1bn for a company with a primary business focus of longevity?	Binary
0.210	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
0.187	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
0.169	In the year ending in November 2nd, 2020, will a new in vivo study on regenerating or rejuvenating the human thymus be started?	Binary
-	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
-	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
-	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-0.220	Will the US-China trade war still be ongoing by November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
-1.883	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-3.131	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-8.702	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-10.805	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary