Bernhard

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

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1236	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
210.388	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
139.601	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
135.447	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
131.626	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
130.198	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
125.628	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
116.079	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
115.990	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
110.398	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
103.758	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
100.357	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
100.316	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
96.005	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
91.286	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
91.054	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
90.852	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
88.655	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
88.083	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
87.977	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
86.498	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
86.454	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
85.359	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
84.513	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
83.734	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
81.909	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
81.034	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
80.696	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
80.192	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
78.325	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
78.029	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
77.467	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
76.180	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
75.559	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
74.513	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
73.481	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
73.074	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
72.981	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
70.715	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
69.562	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
69.307	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
68.205	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
67.017	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
66.596	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
66.355	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
66.308	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
66.226	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
65.459	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
65.206	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
62.296	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
61.188	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
58.435	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
57.895	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
57.536	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
55.839	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
54.585	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
53.777	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
53.663	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
53.625	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
53.599	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
47.524	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
46.711	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
45.814	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
45.752	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
43.163	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
43.098	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
43.062	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
41.858	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
39.592	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
38.471	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
38.213	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
38.127	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
37.618	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
36.994	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
35.601	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
34.563	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
31.762	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
31.730	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
30.818	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
29.529	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
28.986	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
28.470	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
28.217	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
28.168	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
27.626	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
26.593	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
24.867	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
24.568	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
22.906	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
20.519	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
20.202	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
18.743	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
15.715	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
14.346	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
14.221	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
10.075	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
9.491	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
5.830	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
5.586	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
4.011	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
3.103	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.028	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
1.125	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.083	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-2.759	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
-7.416	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-9.222	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-9.733	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
-12.984	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-14.225	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-14.354	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-14.741	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-18.643	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-18.812	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
-22.996	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-24.050	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
-24.476	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-26.265	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
-28.426	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-31.450	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
-32.510	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-36.695	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-42.820	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-44.418	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
-58.392	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
-60.371	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
-61.290	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-62.668	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-65.906	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
-70.619	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-71.245	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-82.594	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
-83.833	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-87.174	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-91.354	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-91.835	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-97.322	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
-98.245	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-105.020	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-112.248	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-135.415	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-151.385	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-155.888	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-162.646	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-168.146	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-173.290	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-173.332	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-176.336	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-179.320	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-182.921	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-184.336	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-185.489	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-185.600	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-190.870	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-192.562	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-214.744	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-327.909	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary