tom_sittler

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

713	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.871	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
74.665	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
59.888	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
54.762	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
51.957	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
45.957	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
44.723	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
44.001	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
41.674	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
39.744	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
34.460	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
23.011	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
22.143	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
20.338	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
17.904	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
16.021	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
14.624	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
9.415	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
9.146	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
8.468	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
7.978	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
6.590	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
6.497	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
6.052	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
4.511	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
4.480	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
-	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
-	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-2.908	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
-4.066	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-15.194	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
-17.743	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary