Pshyeah

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

813.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.322	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
68.192	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
65.671	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
63.401	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
59.481	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
46.902	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
45.717	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
44.031	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
42.181	What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?	Continuous
39.867	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
39.644	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
39.051	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
37.527	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
31.436	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
28.674	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
26.417	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
26.058	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
21.392	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
20.372	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
19.540	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
18.189	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
15.058	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
14.292	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
11.370	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
0.985	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
-0.393	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
-5.284	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-43.381	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-53.778	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary