Zweihander

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5774	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
201.734	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
127.964	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
127.255	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
121.710	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
117.840	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
115.588	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
115.497	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
108.653	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
106.354	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
103.226	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
100.374	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
99.977	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
95.400	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
95.182	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
94.446	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
93.845	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
92.091	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
91.351	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
90.691	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
88.256	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
86.341	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
85.930	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
85.305	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
83.390	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
83.352	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
82.911	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
81.573	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
81.362	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
80.944	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
79.164	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
78.381	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
77.463	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
75.511	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
75.502	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
75.459	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
75.139	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
75.114	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
75.009	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
74.466	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
73.104	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
71.357	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
69.882	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
69.866	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
68.644	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
68.468	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
68.052	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
67.868	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
67.634	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
67.391	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
66.950	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
66.424	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
65.333	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
64.945	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
64.735	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.469	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
64.362	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
62.777	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
62.414	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
61.395	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
61.353	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
60.884	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
60.514	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
60.053	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
58.749	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
58.269	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
58.009	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
56.593	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
56.291	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
56.242	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
55.274	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
55.240	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
54.775	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
53.786	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
53.208	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
51.937	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
50.983	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
50.950	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
50.645	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
50.632	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
50.564	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
50.441	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
50.242	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
49.727	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
49.640	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
49.620	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
48.750	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.150	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
47.858	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
47.702	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
47.357	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
47.288	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
47.203	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
46.813	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.197	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
45.343	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
45.107	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
44.509	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
44.142	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
42.862	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
42.108	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
41.914	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
41.728	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
38.988	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
38.805	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
37.972	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
37.776	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
36.950	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
36.747	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
35.781	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
35.703	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.523	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
34.299	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
34.210	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
33.549	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
32.980	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
31.690	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
31.573	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
31.486	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
31.347	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
29.815	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
28.952	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
28.033	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
27.167	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
25.375	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
24.964	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
24.871	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
24.572	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
23.891	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
23.597	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
23.510	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
23.336	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
22.964	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
20.908	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
20.079	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
19.958	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
18.627	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
18.508	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
18.298	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
18.159	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
17.719	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
17.475	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
15.065	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
14.174	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
13.594	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
13.106	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
12.430	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
10.119	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
7.919	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
7.647	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
6.869	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
6.753	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
5.848	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
5.422	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
4.757	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
4.234	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
3.213	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
2.579	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
2.507	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
1.654	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
1.393	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
0.309	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
0.201	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
0.062	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
0.058	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-1.363	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-2.224	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-2.704	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-3.717	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-5.291	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-5.312	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
-5.547	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-5.886	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
-7.620	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-8.299	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-9.737	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-12.536	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-13.419	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-15.140	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-16.161	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-16.465	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-17.912	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
-21.179	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-21.406	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-23.327	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-26.640	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-27.472	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-28.958	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-31.179	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-32.192	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-32.837	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-33.433	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-35.214	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-35.323	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-38.152	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-38.572	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-41.555	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-42.717	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-42.854	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-59.325	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-68.059	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
-71.908	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
-83.223	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-93.304	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-104.278	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-118.504	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-125.932	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-130.729	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
-155.446	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-164.167	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-184.380	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-202.179	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-207.765	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-216.181	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous