Bob_Jacobs

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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3961	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.867	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
86.749	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
83.017	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
80.629	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
75.750	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
72.153	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
71.593	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
71.500	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
70.506	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
69.296	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
68.886	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
65.295	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
64.023	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
61.742	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
60.246	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
60.133	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
58.304	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
58.126	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
57.805	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
56.858	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
54.093	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
52.738	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
52.010	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
49.915	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
49.417	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
49.385	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
47.849	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
47.539	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
46.887	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
45.999	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
45.974	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
45.782	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
44.290	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
42.448	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
41.652	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
40.504	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
40.439	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
40.213	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
40.151	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
37.396	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
36.375	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
35.777	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
35.591	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
34.928	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
34.581	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
34.381	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
34.228	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
33.861	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
32.581	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
32.313	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
31.603	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
30.427	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
30.275	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
29.629	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
28.951	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
28.863	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
28.750	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
28.104	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
28.009	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
27.892	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
27.574	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
27.080	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
25.161	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
24.689	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
24.653	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
24.386	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
24.383	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
24.359	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
24.318	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
23.984	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
23.386	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
23.220	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
23.053	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
23.021	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
22.836	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
22.616	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
22.536	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
22.528	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
22.427	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
22.415	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
20.731	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
20.697	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
19.832	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
19.329	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
19.042	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
19.000	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
18.906	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
18.476	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
18.392	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
18.326	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
18.285	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
18.167	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
17.355	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
17.266	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
16.944	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
16.317	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
16.269	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
16.186	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
16.054	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
15.875	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
15.475	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
14.297	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
14.260	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.621	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
13.363	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
13.341	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
12.574	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
12.570	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
12.368	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
12.158	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
11.720	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
11.642	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
11.488	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
11.356	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
11.320	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
11.050	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
10.597	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
10.580	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
10.514	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
10.170	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
10.026	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
9.489	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
9.284	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
9.273	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
9.101	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
8.964	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
8.715	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
8.687	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
8.646	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
8.467	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.372	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
7.995	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
6.980	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
6.863	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
6.686	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
6.509	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
6.088	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
5.579	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
5.504	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
5.240	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.977	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
3.865	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
3.471	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
3.116	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
3.103	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
3.100	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
3.029	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
2.304	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
1.763	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
1.674	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
1.462	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
0.798	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.797	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
0.573	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.451	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
0.387	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.189	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
0.087	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
0.058	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-0.121	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-0.127	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-0.347	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.966	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-1.314	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-1.348	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-1.595	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-5.916	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-10.394	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-13.011	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-17.722	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-19.923	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-45.413	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-49.167	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-80.854	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary