elifland

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
224.180	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
138.486	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
131.129	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
129.986	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
121.278	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
117.190	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
115.790	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
104.919	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
104.643	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
103.190	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
102.653	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
102.564	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
101.412	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
101.290	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
100.541	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
98.287	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
94.515	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
94.505	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
94.143	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
93.991	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
93.364	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
92.281	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
92.137	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
92.019	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
91.746	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
90.395	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
90.247	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
90.200	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
88.801	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
88.712	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
88.538	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
87.838	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
87.161	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
86.812	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
86.799	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
86.468	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
86.201	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
85.550	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
84.716	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
84.658	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
84.566	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
84.514	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
84.183	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
84.087	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
83.887	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
82.477	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
81.294	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
80.525	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
79.690	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
79.323	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
78.677	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
78.345	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
77.670	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
77.416	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
77.071	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
77.027	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
76.992	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
76.219	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
76.097	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
76.080	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
76.052	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
75.339	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
75.045	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
75.007	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
73.938	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
73.833	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
73.458	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
72.854	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
72.827	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
72.546	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
72.375	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
71.899	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
71.402	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
71.164	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
71.099	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
70.841	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
69.157	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
68.375	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
68.341	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
67.953	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
67.271	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
66.497	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
65.931	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
65.219	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
65.139	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
64.736	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
63.724	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
63.289	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
62.998	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
62.859	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
62.715	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
62.309	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
62.071	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
59.997	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
59.796	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
59.728	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
59.677	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
59.500	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
59.473	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
58.746	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
58.483	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
58.401	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
58.343	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
58.086	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
57.198	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
57.114	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
56.499	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
56.324	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
55.788	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
55.548	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
55.309	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
55.015	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
54.951	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
54.927	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
54.804	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
54.140	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
52.424	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
52.106	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
51.235	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
49.930	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
49.735	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
49.652	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
49.586	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
49.263	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
49.197	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
48.287	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
48.214	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
48.205	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
48.178	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
48.125	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
47.121	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
47.022	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
46.928	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
46.657	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
45.903	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
45.343	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
45.025	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
44.510	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
43.850	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
43.532	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
43.340	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
43.166	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
42.931	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
42.839	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
42.577	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
41.773	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
41.100	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
41.039	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
40.774	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
40.624	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
40.383	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
40.193	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
39.720	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
39.719	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
39.577	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
39.221	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
39.094	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
38.908	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
38.571	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
38.026	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
36.809	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
36.554	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
36.351	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
36.312	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
35.871	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
35.760	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
35.289	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
34.536	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
33.946	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
33.914	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
33.839	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
33.779	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
33.638	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
33.173	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
33.133	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
33.087	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
32.974	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
32.951	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
32.912	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
32.765	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
32.385	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
32.346	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
31.747	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
31.609	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
31.066	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
30.539	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
30.450	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
30.198	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
29.944	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
29.838	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
29.545	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
29.415	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
29.173	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
29.043	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
27.704	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
26.499	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
26.215	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
25.497	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
24.935	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
24.772	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
24.518	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
23.669	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
22.941	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
22.754	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
22.682	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
22.597	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
21.492	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
20.981	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
20.661	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
20.628	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
19.856	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
19.357	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
19.344	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
19.343	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
18.467	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
18.299	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
17.369	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
17.253	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
17.047	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
16.698	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
16.532	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
16.509	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
16.428	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
15.661	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
15.504	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
14.548	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
14.530	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
14.510	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
14.108	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
14.067	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
13.253	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
11.875	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
11.328	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
11.070	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
10.931	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
9.417	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
8.243	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
7.701	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
5.514	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
5.412	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
4.109	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
3.510	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
3.256	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.659	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.638	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
2.626	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.648	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
1.326	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
1.131	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
0.440	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
0.041	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-1.377	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-1.977	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-4.234	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-4.827	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-5.486	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-7.338	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-9.051	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-9.564	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-10.741	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-12.130	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-13.441	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-15.810	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-17.821	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
-18.274	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-20.538	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-22.286	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
-22.371	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-23.376	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-24.673	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-25.211	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-25.272	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
-26.313	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-28.603	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-29.083	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-29.734	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-35.012	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-35.730	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-36.499	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-36.652	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-38.485	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-41.752	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-47.280	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-75.405	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-88.229	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-96.531	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-106.541	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-110.989	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-117.582	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-126.723	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-130.406	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-166.572	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-199.168	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-254.247	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary