randallburns

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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3324	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
104.771	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
91.666	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
88.196	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
84.971	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
83.401	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
83.125	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
83.039	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
82.547	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
81.041	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
80.779	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
80.336	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
79.822	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
79.293	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
77.012	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
76.400	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
75.445	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
75.247	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
74.340	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
74.114	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
74.046	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
73.357	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
73.324	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
70.834	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
70.566	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
69.317	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
68.769	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
68.360	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
67.887	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
64.847	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
64.557	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
64.049	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
62.246	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
61.800	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
60.746	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
60.137	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
59.501	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
59.447	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
58.930	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
58.092	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
57.513	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
57.348	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
56.544	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
56.207	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
55.414	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
52.405	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
52.131	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
51.952	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
51.882	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
51.543	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
51.541	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
49.491	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
49.289	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
48.889	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
48.516	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
47.777	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
47.627	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
46.156	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
45.153	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
44.643	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
44.542	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
44.486	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
44.255	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
43.637	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
42.838	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
42.370	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
42.324	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
42.222	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
41.598	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
40.062	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
40.038	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
39.918	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
39.604	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
38.670	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
38.356	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
38.188	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
37.972	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
37.264	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
36.623	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
35.106	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
34.713	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
34.217	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
32.316	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
31.334	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
30.827	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
30.283	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
29.935	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
28.276	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
28.038	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
27.813	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
26.467	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
26.333	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
26.306	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
26.124	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
26.025	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
25.714	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
25.689	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
25.368	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
25.249	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
24.878	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
24.087	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
24.049	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
23.537	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
22.681	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
22.346	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
22.113	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
22.068	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
21.614	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
20.779	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
20.025	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
20.024	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
19.219	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
19.154	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
19.137	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
18.778	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
18.136	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
17.657	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
17.416	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
17.370	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
17.234	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
17.141	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
15.724	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
15.385	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
14.975	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
14.665	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
13.625	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
13.129	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.053	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.880	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
12.116	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
11.909	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
11.373	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
10.970	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
10.966	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
10.859	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
10.410	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
9.977	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
9.167	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
9.108	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
9.100	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
8.030	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
7.377	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
7.297	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
7.230	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
7.214	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
7.154	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
7.037	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
6.199	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
5.713	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.711	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
5.370	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
5.024	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
4.862	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
4.617	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
4.546	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
4.467	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
3.697	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
3.458	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
2.865	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
2.658	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
2.642	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
2.618	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
2.554	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
2.322	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
1.476	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
0.838	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
0.596	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-0.211	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
-0.730	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-2.059	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-2.839	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-2.892	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-3.333	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
-3.361	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
-5.015	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-5.861	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-6.320	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
-7.656	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-7.800	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
-8.776	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-10.281	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-10.602	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-12.009	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-12.152	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-13.597	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-14.822	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
-18.926	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-20.094	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-20.644	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-21.949	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-22.509	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
-23.352	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-24.178	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
-26.382	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-32.870	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
-35.646	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-38.981	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-39.505	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-49.863	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
-59.746	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-60.143	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-74.174	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-80.360	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-81.178	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-88.882	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-91.949	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
-100.850	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-106.137	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-107.572	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
-108.702	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-116.083	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-125.756	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-137.987	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-139.024	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-144.413	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-174.426	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-192.381	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-222.957	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous