galen

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5774	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
101.345	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
95.108	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
93.449	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
92.552	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
92.306	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
91.687	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
89.416	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
88.245	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
87.878	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
85.071	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
84.729	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
83.927	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
81.900	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
81.070	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
80.563	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
79.561	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
78.334	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
77.678	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
77.452	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
77.035	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
76.377	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
76.177	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
75.560	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
73.106	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
72.589	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
72.026	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
70.865	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
70.527	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
70.016	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
67.944	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
67.845	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
67.259	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
65.515	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
65.512	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
65.434	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
63.703	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
63.674	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
63.118	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
63.035	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
62.895	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
61.601	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
61.527	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
60.783	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
59.672	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
59.006	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
58.488	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
58.461	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
57.723	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
57.280	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
57.246	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
57.209	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
57.104	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
56.124	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
55.515	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
55.515	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
55.104	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
54.985	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
54.889	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
52.156	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
51.516	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
51.365	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
50.969	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
50.810	What proportion of novel coronavirus infections outside China by March 27 will be due to exposure in China?	Continuous
49.882	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
49.657	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
47.378	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
47.178	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
45.217	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
45.021	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
44.879	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
44.654	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
44.087	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
44.026	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
42.521	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
41.678	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
41.092	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
39.639	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
39.148	Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?	Binary
38.791	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
38.215	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
38.025	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
37.738	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
36.961	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
36.958	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
35.880	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
35.114	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
34.170	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
33.733	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
33.190	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
33.126	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
32.635	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
32.190	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
31.791	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.581	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
29.461	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
28.830	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
28.543	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
28.248	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
28.200	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
28.049	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
27.598	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
27.376	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
27.315	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
27.290	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
26.951	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
26.890	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
26.616	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
26.591	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
26.161	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
25.967	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
25.750	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
25.729	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
25.726	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
25.022	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
24.050	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
23.901	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
23.624	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
23.163	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
23.019	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
22.533	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
22.468	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
22.360	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
22.343	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
22.151	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
21.892	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
21.734	Will EA Global San Francisco be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
21.627	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
21.605	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
20.302	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
20.166	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
20.143	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
19.938	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.682	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
19.489	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
19.286	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
18.969	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
18.794	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
18.698	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
18.606	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
18.088	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
17.263	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
16.901	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
15.960	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
15.717	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
15.631	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
14.908	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
14.893	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
14.867	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
14.724	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
13.828	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
13.600	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
13.560	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
13.498	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on February the 17th?	Continuous
13.250	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
13.191	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
12.817	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
12.513	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
12.411	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
11.414	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
11.138	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
11.066	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
10.869	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
10.264	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
10.262	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
10.033	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.413	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
9.346	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
9.209	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
8.799	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.417	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
8.149	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
7.808	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
7.302	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
6.962	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
5.874	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
5.494	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
4.999	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.839	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
4.602	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
4.466	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
4.418	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.755	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
3.512	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
3.437	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
3.002	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
2.407	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
2.347	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
2.223	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
2.168	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
2.086	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.971	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
1.962	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
1.956	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
1.680	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.603	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
1.555	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
1.463	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
1.393	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
1.046	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
0.950	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.870	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.765	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.669	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
0.502	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
0.114	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-0.288	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
-0.406	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-0.774	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-2.808	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-5.390	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-6.397	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-9.303	How many total confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China will be reported by Johns Hopkins CSSE on March 2nd, 2020?	Continuous
-9.778	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-10.490	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-11.943	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-13.231	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-17.204	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-22.999	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-24.034	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-28.735	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-32.041	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of Mainland China on March the 27th?	Continuous
-47.866	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
-50.553	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-55.778	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
-65.172	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-69.987	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-70.446	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-86.406	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-87.682	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
-94.519	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-95.797	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-110.494	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-183.586	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-204.259	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary