galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5967	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.018	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
96.447	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
94.900	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
94.025	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
93.012	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
92.585	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
89.649	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
88.945	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
88.489	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
88.376	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
88.172	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
87.659	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
86.373	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
86.099	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
86.083	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
85.883	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
85.641	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
85.165	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
84.950	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
84.349	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
84.300	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
84.040	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
83.722	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
81.776	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
80.907	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
79.087	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
78.695	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
78.611	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
77.877	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
77.777	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
77.271	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
76.175	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
74.771	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
74.474	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
73.688	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
73.535	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
73.140	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
72.921	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
72.518	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
72.029	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
71.649	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
71.587	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
70.579	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
67.976	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
66.432	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
66.391	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
66.304	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
65.908	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
64.802	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
64.447	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.071	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
63.471	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
63.149	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
62.963	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
62.598	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
61.666	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
60.862	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
60.690	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
60.031	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
59.760	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
59.275	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
58.525	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
58.330	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
58.002	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
57.646	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
56.531	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
56.227	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
55.956	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
55.639	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
53.106	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
53.012	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
52.761	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
51.693	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
51.464	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
51.354	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
51.267	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
50.910	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
50.091	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
49.750	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
48.958	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
48.475	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
48.283	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
46.694	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
46.569	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.367	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
44.610	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
44.571	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
43.449	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
42.164	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
42.079	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
41.913	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
41.475	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
41.137	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
41.084	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
40.257	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
40.142	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
39.603	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.273	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
37.085	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
36.990	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
36.761	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
36.456	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
35.745	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
35.709	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
33.296	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
33.077	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
33.067	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
32.814	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
32.373	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
31.621	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
31.282	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
30.173	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
29.659	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
29.236	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
28.417	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
27.885	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
27.864	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
27.254	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
26.719	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
25.440	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
23.980	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
22.503	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
22.451	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
21.703	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
21.323	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
20.996	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
20.155	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
19.765	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
19.268	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
18.326	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
18.073	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
17.790	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
17.719	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
15.368	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
15.282	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
13.881	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
13.836	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
11.831	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
11.705	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
11.611	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
11.317	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
10.089	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
10.081	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
10.070	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
9.795	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
9.210	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
9.094	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
8.914	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
8.629	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
8.233	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
8.010	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
7.398	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
7.259	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
7.062	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
6.629	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
6.333	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
6.207	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
6.194	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
5.832	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
5.789	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
5.025	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
4.912	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
1.934	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
1.410	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
1.287	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.441	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
0.021	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-0.861	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-0.984	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-1.935	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-1.966	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-2.873	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-4.348	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-4.454	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-4.877	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-5.107	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-7.391	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-7.399	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-8.361	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-9.459	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-9.484	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-10.349	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-10.449	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-10.528	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-10.709	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-16.260	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-17.002	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-17.115	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-19.719	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-24.084	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-27.533	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-29.489	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-31.187	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-37.365	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-41.944	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-44.676	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-45.269	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-47.873	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-51.137	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-53.508	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-57.632	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-61.023	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-67.174	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-67.399	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-69.273	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-74.536	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-105.184	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-113.145	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-121.165	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-140.104	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-265.371	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary