Cory

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8263	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
193.476	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
151.940	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
142.926	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
131.019	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
127.783	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
125.460	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
117.386	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
117.024	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
114.915	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
113.422	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
105.517	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
103.014	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
97.669	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
97.097	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
94.213	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
91.448	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
88.964	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
88.100	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
87.889	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
87.055	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
86.458	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
85.247	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
84.992	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
84.972	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
84.885	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
84.803	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
83.155	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
81.363	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
80.730	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
80.358	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
79.192	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
77.870	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
77.774	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
77.577	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
76.841	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
75.314	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
75.266	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
75.225	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
75.172	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
74.677	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
73.994	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
72.957	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
72.890	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
70.644	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
70.318	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
69.649	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
68.714	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
68.212	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
67.407	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
66.445	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
65.551	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
65.269	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
65.101	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
64.817	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
64.779	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
63.594	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
63.145	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
63.101	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
63.084	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
62.939	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
61.831	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
61.743	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
61.338	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
60.699	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
60.311	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
60.029	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
59.852	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
59.679	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
59.382	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
59.250	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
59.055	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
57.963	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
57.549	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
56.870	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
55.897	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
53.278	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
52.980	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
52.640	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
52.586	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
51.261	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
50.673	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
49.927	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
49.833	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
49.475	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
49.087	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
48.229	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
47.779	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
47.594	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
46.866	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
46.644	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
45.826	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
45.568	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
44.577	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
44.542	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
44.043	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
43.773	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
43.293	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
42.616	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
41.821	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
41.504	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
41.350	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
40.155	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
39.730	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
39.153	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
39.148	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
39.144	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
38.863	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
38.327	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
38.232	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
37.560	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
36.673	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
36.504	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
35.867	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
35.740	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
34.945	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
34.664	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
33.685	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
33.642	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
33.332	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
32.061	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
31.149	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
30.862	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
30.578	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
30.489	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
29.828	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
29.388	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
27.216	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
26.931	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
26.035	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
25.930	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
25.715	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
25.668	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
25.512	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
25.456	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
24.769	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
23.912	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
23.432	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
22.949	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
22.328	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
21.804	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
21.628	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
21.470	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
21.188	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
20.881	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
20.802	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
20.675	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
19.653	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
19.321	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
19.077	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
18.844	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
18.384	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
18.200	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
17.731	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
17.704	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
17.657	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
17.544	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
16.968	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
16.163	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
15.751	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
15.098	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
14.993	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
14.943	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
14.011	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
13.232	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
12.436	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
12.311	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
11.672	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
11.194	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
10.766	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
9.810	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
9.781	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
9.636	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
8.440	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
8.269	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
6.305	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
4.269	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
4.223	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
3.788	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
1.944	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
1.502	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
1.496	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
1.469	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.447	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.362	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
0.893	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
0.874	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
0.458	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.421	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
0.408	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.358	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.329	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.238	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
0.219	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.216	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.179	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
0.146	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-0.592	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-2.621	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-4.547	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-5.426	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-5.563	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-11.231	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-12.625	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-18.990	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-30.231	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-35.779	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-46.639	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-52.540	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-53.595	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-54.232	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-59.404	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-63.045	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-63.216	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-92.646	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-97.313	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-162.737	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary