Vang

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4836	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
111.665	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
105.645	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
96.197	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
93.191	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
93.120	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
91.690	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
89.638	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
88.593	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
87.684	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
87.349	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
81.252	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
80.939	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
78.177	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
77.734	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
76.917	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
76.302	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
76.179	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
75.927	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
73.337	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
72.759	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
71.875	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
71.433	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
71.410	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
70.427	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
69.049	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
68.494	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
67.389	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
67.376	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
67.311	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
67.294	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
66.506	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
65.784	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
65.626	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
64.489	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
64.285	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
63.565	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
62.289	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
61.997	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
61.861	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
60.342	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
60.178	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
59.933	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
59.156	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
59.069	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
57.683	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
57.675	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
57.670	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
57.342	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
57.333	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
56.554	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
56.172	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
55.715	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
55.682	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
55.419	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
55.008	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
53.471	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
53.342	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
52.521	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
52.011	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
51.319	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
51.156	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
50.919	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
50.758	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
50.676	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
50.204	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
50.163	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
49.705	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
49.549	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
49.461	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
49.274	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
47.751	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
47.402	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
45.872	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
45.539	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
45.450	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
44.737	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
44.640	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
44.537	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
42.961	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
42.264	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
42.214	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
42.170	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
42.111	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
41.948	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
41.774	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
40.122	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
39.950	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
39.663	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
39.340	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
38.306	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
37.898	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
36.571	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
36.426	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
35.702	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
33.579	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
33.298	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
32.122	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.850	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
31.745	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
31.664	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
31.371	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
30.749	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
30.528	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
29.081	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
29.042	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
28.923	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
28.268	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
28.082	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
27.784	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
26.578	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
26.380	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
26.030	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
26.015	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
25.859	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
25.805	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
25.791	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
25.482	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
25.206	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
23.279	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
21.388	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
20.565	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
19.255	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
18.070	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
16.949	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
15.804	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
15.327	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
15.029	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
14.576	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
13.067	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
12.839	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
11.750	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.608	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
7.679	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
7.575	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
7.353	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
6.387	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
5.069	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
4.930	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
4.928	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
4.429	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
3.485	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
3.479	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
3.332	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
1.725	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
0.657	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
0.307	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
0.191	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
-0.009	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-0.834	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-2.056	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-2.330	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-3.258	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-4.957	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-5.355	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-5.767	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-8.649	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-10.952	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-14.247	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-14.663	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-18.866	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-25.112	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-29.690	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-36.932	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-39.397	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-41.583	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-42.237	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-42.285	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-45.293	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-56.692	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-57.940	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-85.291	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-94.709	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-95.090	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-99.069	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-113.300	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-138.078	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-194.317	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-219.052	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-269.706	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary