elspeth

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

586.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
74.778	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
73.819	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
70.174	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
67.794	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
63.375	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
63.295	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
59.744	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
54.486	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
54.163	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
48.111	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
41.537	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
36.688	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
26.190	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
23.584	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
17.045	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
-2.204	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-74.776	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-110.912	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous