SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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6162	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
131.469	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
128.852	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
115.629	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
112.417	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
108.194	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
106.924	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
104.973	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
99.348	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
97.514	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
97.407	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
97.284	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
97.222	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
95.024	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
94.936	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
94.402	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
94.208	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
93.882	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
93.566	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
92.151	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
91.785	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
90.569	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
88.107	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
86.267	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
84.064	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
82.831	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
82.447	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
81.891	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
79.687	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
79.368	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
75.855	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
75.207	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
72.680	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
72.572	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
72.562	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
72.477	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
71.495	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
71.484	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
71.055	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
70.142	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
69.112	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
68.493	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
67.837	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
65.550	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
65.544	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
64.892	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
64.411	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
63.458	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
62.199	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
59.844	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
59.284	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
59.115	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
57.936	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
57.310	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
56.719	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
54.478	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
53.492	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
53.424	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
53.107	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
53.063	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
52.126	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
51.978	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
51.622	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
51.603	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
51.195	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
50.334	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
49.551	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
48.040	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
47.076	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
46.256	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
44.773	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
44.452	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
44.324	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
43.838	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
43.441	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
43.165	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
42.066	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
41.654	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
40.439	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
40.132	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
39.375	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
38.790	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
37.556	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
37.137	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
35.928	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
35.225	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
35.027	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
34.937	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
34.214	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
33.640	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
32.453	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
31.468	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
30.608	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
30.565	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
30.467	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
30.240	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
30.091	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
29.456	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
29.132	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
29.130	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
28.813	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
28.257	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
28.051	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
27.313	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
26.696	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
26.695	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
26.353	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
26.008	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
25.893	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
25.501	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
25.179	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
24.146	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
23.587	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
23.334	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
23.284	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
23.276	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
22.995	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
22.577	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
22.574	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
21.669	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
21.485	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
21.311	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
20.686	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
20.513	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
19.837	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
19.662	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
19.018	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
18.624	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
18.248	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
17.947	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
17.596	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
17.235	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
16.457	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
16.435	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
14.238	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
13.940	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
13.504	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
13.160	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
13.054	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
13.053	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
12.955	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
12.806	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
12.741	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
12.208	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
11.950	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
11.745	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
10.969	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
10.555	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
9.558	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
8.687	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.523	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
8.436	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
7.904	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
7.631	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
7.317	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
6.498	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
6.204	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
5.678	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
5.292	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
5.028	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.701	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
4.379	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
3.757	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
3.484	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
3.425	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
2.784	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
1.883	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
1.769	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
0.686	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
0.497	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-3.395	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-3.583	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-3.816	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
-8.107	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-12.511	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-12.650	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-18.970	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-24.151	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-34.879	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-35.597	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-38.897	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-48.788	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-54.959	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-58.896	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-59.879	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-87.108	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-93.351	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-149.138	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-199.401	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-279.086	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary