SimonM

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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8878	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
184.311	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
139.819	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
133.618	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
123.176	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
120.734	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
117.175	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
114.911	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
114.794	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
114.514	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
114.154	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
113.418	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
111.834	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
111.718	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
109.612	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
107.356	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
106.132	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
100.250	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
97.977	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
97.897	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
97.884	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
97.705	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
97.552	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
97.466	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
97.142	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
96.758	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
96.588	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
96.534	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
96.477	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
96.449	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
96.221	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
96.150	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
95.278	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
95.160	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
94.772	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
93.953	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
93.945	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
93.392	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
93.331	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
92.732	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
91.420	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
91.110	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
90.248	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
89.389	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
89.200	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
89.005	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
86.813	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
85.963	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
85.755	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
85.434	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
85.200	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
83.327	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
82.755	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
82.475	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
81.839	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
80.382	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
80.034	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
79.807	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
79.528	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
79.081	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
78.822	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
77.286	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
74.934	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
74.835	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
74.754	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
74.694	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
74.385	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
74.337	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
73.277	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
72.241	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
72.156	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
71.610	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
70.922	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
70.561	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
69.729	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
67.987	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
67.953	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
67.860	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
67.322	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
67.302	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
67.263	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
67.259	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
66.692	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
66.102	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
65.771	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
65.718	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
65.599	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
64.885	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
64.273	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
64.273	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
64.254	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
63.439	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
62.137	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
62.092	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
62.068	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
61.944	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
61.675	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
60.598	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
60.489	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
57.815	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
57.530	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
57.178	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
56.784	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
56.671	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
56.430	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
56.210	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
55.402	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
55.084	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
55.066	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
55.038	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
55.007	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
53.755	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
53.737	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
53.185	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
53.030	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
51.061	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
48.502	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
47.885	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
45.582	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
44.192	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
42.551	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
42.155	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
41.953	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
41.767	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
41.634	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
41.083	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
41.045	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
39.891	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
39.809	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
39.487	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
38.382	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
38.089	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
37.808	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
37.746	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
37.386	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
35.554	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
35.359	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
34.977	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
34.616	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
34.182	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
33.889	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
33.000	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
32.623	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.709	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
28.790	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
27.960	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
27.666	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
26.326	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
23.610	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
23.289	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
23.089	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
22.652	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
21.694	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
21.568	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
21.479	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
20.959	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
19.573	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
19.141	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
17.311	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
17.114	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
16.276	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
16.241	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
13.731	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
12.503	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
11.186	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
10.861	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
8.464	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
8.256	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
7.383	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
7.159	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
6.088	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
6.059	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
4.896	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
4.323	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
4.123	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
3.904	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
2.275	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
2.109	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-0.607	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-5.618	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-5.744	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-8.924	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
-10.955	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-13.847	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-13.999	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-15.513	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-18.871	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-22.081	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
-22.887	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-25.392	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-25.399	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-25.848	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-30.861	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-47.389	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-48.180	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-49.126	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-55.089	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-56.527	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-61.262	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-61.762	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-63.178	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-64.047	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-64.917	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-66.384	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-67.324	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-73.195	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-88.054	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-89.113	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-94.952	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-131.238	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-160.679	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-188.410	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-389.644	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary