JonathanShi

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5301	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
130.896	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
103.916	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
96.051	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
95.093	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
94.706	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
93.778	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
93.046	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
92.416	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
91.338	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
90.083	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
88.797	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
87.423	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
84.467	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
84.189	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
79.706	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
77.700	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
77.164	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
76.197	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
76.120	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
75.450	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
74.066	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
72.670	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
71.668	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
71.150	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
70.803	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
69.096	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
68.925	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
68.468	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
67.919	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
64.430	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
63.326	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
61.334	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
60.356	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
59.440	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
59.095	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
58.402	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
58.039	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
57.770	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
57.698	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
55.580	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
51.987	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
51.975	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
50.399	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
50.369	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
50.342	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
49.660	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
49.276	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
48.807	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
48.441	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
48.172	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
47.888	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
47.406	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
47.325	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
46.619	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
46.498	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
45.952	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
44.719	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
42.247	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
41.646	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
41.151	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
40.302	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
39.801	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
38.435	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
38.432	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
37.728	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
37.187	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
36.996	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
36.657	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
33.275	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
32.917	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
32.035	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
31.532	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
31.379	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
30.935	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
29.894	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
29.635	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
29.478	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
28.248	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
28.107	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
27.521	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
25.662	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
25.475	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
25.454	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
25.075	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
25.041	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
24.532	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
24.198	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
24.139	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
23.996	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
23.357	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
23.017	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
22.740	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
22.536	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
21.967	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
21.793	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
21.655	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
21.450	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
21.358	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
21.137	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
20.238	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
20.109	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
19.942	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
19.723	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
19.703	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
19.039	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
18.877	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
18.517	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
18.003	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
17.773	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
17.724	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
17.454	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
17.417	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
17.377	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
16.705	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
16.319	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
16.220	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
16.142	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
15.875	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
15.813	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
15.789	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
15.656	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
15.218	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
15.189	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
14.962	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
14.888	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
14.667	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
14.385	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
14.299	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
14.048	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
14.017	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
13.962	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
13.933	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
13.589	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
13.355	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
12.740	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
12.734	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
12.598	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
12.404	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
11.989	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
11.623	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
10.523	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
8.985	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
8.686	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
8.677	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
8.650	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
8.027	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
7.936	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
7.723	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
7.676	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
7.139	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
6.842	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
6.700	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
6.373	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
5.774	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
5.073	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
5.030	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
5.009	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
4.955	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
4.841	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
4.110	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
4.097	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.800	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.526	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
2.582	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
2.461	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
2.273	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
2.108	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
1.988	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
1.973	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.850	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
1.811	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.736	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
1.566	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
1.487	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
1.467	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
1.176	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
1.148	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
1.049	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.959	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
0.936	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.901	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.875	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.841	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.641	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
0.634	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
0.477	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.197	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
0.073	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
0.023	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-0.107	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-0.266	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-0.318	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-0.680	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-0.682	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-0.817	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-0.939	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-1.121	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-1.317	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-1.824	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-2.656	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-6.076	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-7.624	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-8.000	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-8.781	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-8.972	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-12.888	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-22.991	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-26.511	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-43.462	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-60.538	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-86.133	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
-186.622	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-188.991	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous