niplav

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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5060	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.096	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
127.556	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
120.410	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
113.121	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
106.817	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
93.771	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
92.471	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
90.650	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
89.332	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
89.149	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
87.873	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
85.899	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
85.728	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
82.965	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
82.088	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
79.961	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
79.880	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
77.506	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
76.360	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
76.091	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
75.501	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
74.840	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
73.497	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
73.023	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
72.535	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
72.323	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
72.081	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
71.156	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
70.731	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
70.539	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
70.528	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
70.240	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
69.151	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
68.691	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
68.522	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
68.249	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
67.763	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
66.235	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
65.831	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
64.279	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
64.200	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
63.932	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
62.766	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
62.199	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
61.734	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
61.603	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
61.547	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
61.320	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
60.917	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
60.776	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
60.648	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
60.403	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
60.275	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
60.068	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
60.035	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
60.015	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
59.539	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
58.793	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
57.564	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
57.243	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
55.930	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
54.820	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
54.486	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
53.520	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
53.288	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
52.908	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
52.770	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
51.667	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
50.072	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
49.315	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
49.052	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
48.015	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
47.920	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
47.873	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
47.872	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
47.278	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
46.220	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
46.097	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
45.577	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
44.758	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
44.585	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
43.618	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
43.503	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
42.962	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
42.630	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
42.507	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
41.061	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
41.059	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
41.049	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
40.286	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
40.171	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
39.673	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
39.561	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
38.139	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
37.061	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
36.340	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
36.148	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
35.834	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
35.721	What will be the US unemployment rate for March 2020?	Continuous
35.680	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
34.977	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
34.891	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
34.824	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
34.186	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
33.573	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
33.367	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
33.282	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
33.232	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
32.274	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.857	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
31.777	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
31.025	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
30.858	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
30.064	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
29.752	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
29.689	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
29.569	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
29.054	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
26.859	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
26.586	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
26.291	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
25.284	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
24.847	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
24.167	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
23.838	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
23.545	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
22.299	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
19.793	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
19.704	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.481	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
19.231	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
18.928	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
18.858	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
18.167	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
17.279	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
16.439	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
16.423	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
15.789	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
15.739	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.951	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
14.899	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
14.518	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
14.482	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
13.239	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
12.833	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
12.801	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
12.613	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
12.492	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
12.193	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
11.511	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
11.064	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
10.743	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
8.978	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
8.750	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
8.421	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
8.235	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
7.952	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
7.137	When will the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reach 1 million?	Continuous
5.365	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.882	Will Keir Starmer win the 2020 Labour leadership contest?	Binary
4.117	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
4.109	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
3.780	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
2.184	Will an Aerospike (finally) Fly?	Binary
1.848	Have we permanently lost contact with ASTERIA?	Binary
1.481	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
0.602	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.412	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
-0.624	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-4.626	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-6.270	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-6.433	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-6.596	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-6.812	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-8.124	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-8.231	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
-8.380	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-8.985	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-13.267	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
-13.663	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
-16.525	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
-17.498	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-19.707	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
-21.057	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-21.305	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-24.297	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-25.194	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-27.448	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
-30.521	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-31.137	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-32.555	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-35.406	What will the Seattle Police Department report as the total number of criminal offenses in March 2020?	Continuous
-37.402	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-37.991	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
-38.268	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
-44.263	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-53.926	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
-58.746	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-59.115	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-60.808	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-62.744	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
-63.418	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-73.273	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-76.835	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-81.029	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-105.519	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-107.188	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-123.019	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-141.387	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-152.236	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-162.057	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
-168.273	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-191.031	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-203.095	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous