isaacdunn

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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3957	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
101.641	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
94.725	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
90.472	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
89.145	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
87.757	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
87.714	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
87.367	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
86.606	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
79.016	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
77.969	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
77.590	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
73.666	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
73.066	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
71.543	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
71.448	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
70.654	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
70.316	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
67.694	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
67.131	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
66.972	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
64.822	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
64.528	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
63.852	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
63.615	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
61.062	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
59.945	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
59.198	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
57.009	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
55.834	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
55.795	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
53.147	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
51.724	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
50.621	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
50.142	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
49.679	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
48.176	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
47.856	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
47.708	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
47.685	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
47.680	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
46.750	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
46.065	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
45.100	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
44.168	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
42.313	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
41.765	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
41.722	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
40.707	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
40.305	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
40.135	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
39.839	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
39.315	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
38.489	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
35.914	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
35.282	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
32.745	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
31.475	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
31.245	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
30.962	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
30.600	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
30.192	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
29.536	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
29.081	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
28.835	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
27.768	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
27.745	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
27.567	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
27.555	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
26.411	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
26.316	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
25.546	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
25.434	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
24.980	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
24.628	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
23.989	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
23.720	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
22.843	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
22.359	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
21.167	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
20.856	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
20.418	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
20.243	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
19.658	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
18.840	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
17.826	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
17.605	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
17.329	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
17.206	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
17.111	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
16.968	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
16.793	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
16.662	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
16.619	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
16.424	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
15.977	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
15.453	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
15.312	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.920	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
14.895	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
14.869	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
14.867	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
14.648	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
14.477	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
14.077	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
13.307	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
13.216	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
12.818	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
12.258	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.002	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
11.924	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
11.849	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
11.580	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
11.532	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
11.352	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
11.058	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
10.915	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
10.664	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
10.438	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
10.343	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
10.266	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
9.619	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
9.529	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
9.398	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
9.376	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
9.109	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
9.011	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
8.778	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.375	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
8.234	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
8.051	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
7.950	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
7.626	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
7.460	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
7.368	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
6.687	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.669	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.623	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
5.388	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
5.272	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
5.080	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
5.041	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.919	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.675	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
4.602	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
4.484	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
4.459	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
4.083	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
3.972	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
3.642	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
3.583	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
3.444	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
3.286	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
3.260	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
3.154	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
3.124	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
2.970	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
2.970	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
2.823	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
2.692	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
2.468	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
2.153	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
1.687	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
1.519	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
1.489	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
0.819	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
0.814	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
0.651	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.431	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.333	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
0.278	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
0.181	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
0.036	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-0.183	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
-0.538	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.543	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-1.179	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-2.995	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-4.122	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-6.454	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-9.640	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-12.513	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
-13.907	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
-14.705	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-15.214	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-16.738	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-19.469	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-24.695	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-35.673	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-39.585	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-43.604	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-48.897	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-59.806	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-70.774	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-87.621	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-129.566	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-190.782	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary