niklaswik

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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2337	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.000	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
95.247	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
91.064	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
87.648	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
85.012	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
83.034	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
82.819	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
81.123	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
80.223	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
79.147	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
76.839	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
76.443	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
76.020	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
75.322	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
73.650	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
73.282	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
73.113	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
71.672	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
70.729	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
69.720	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
68.731	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
68.707	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
66.084	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
64.860	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
64.381	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
64.197	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
63.600	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
61.415	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
60.049	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
59.860	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
59.427	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
53.989	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
53.593	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
53.310	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
51.789	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
51.749	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
51.462	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
51.401	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
50.634	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
48.828	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
48.361	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
48.055	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
46.553	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
46.075	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
46.043	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
45.067	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
44.414	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
44.257	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
43.789	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
43.395	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
43.390	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
42.751	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
41.926	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
41.834	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
41.029	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
39.590	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
36.840	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
32.040	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
31.058	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
27.445	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
25.673	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
24.421	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
24.013	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
23.479	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
22.397	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
21.673	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
21.648	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
21.636	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
21.238	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
21.179	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
20.243	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.732	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
17.595	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
16.187	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
14.866	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
14.204	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.331	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
13.315	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.171	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
11.385	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
11.091	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
10.837	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
10.824	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
9.863	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
9.821	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
9.761	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
8.855	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
8.830	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
7.078	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
5.320	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
5.113	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
5.025	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
5.001	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
4.918	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
4.799	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
4.526	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
4.319	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
4.226	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
4.204	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
3.068	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
2.993	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
2.839	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
2.802	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
2.366	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
2.125	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
2.060	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
1.707	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
0.633	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.460	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-0.625	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-0.941	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-5.664	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-6.047	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-7.087	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-7.789	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
-12.318	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-22.797	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
-24.493	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
-36.435	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-38.104	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
-42.225	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-42.387	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-47.634	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-48.280	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-48.788	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-50.359	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-57.171	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-68.731	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-69.957	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
-72.215	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-82.047	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-90.066	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
-92.419	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-94.527	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-97.070	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
-100.932	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
-119.264	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-123.401	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-295.771	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary