PepeS

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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12.83k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
215.677	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
176.765	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
132.195	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
129.694	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
126.053	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
122.632	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
118.435	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
116.138	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
113.040	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
112.164	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
106.357	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
104.449	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
102.999	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
102.492	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
101.429	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
100.722	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
100.556	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
100.493	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
99.793	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
98.811	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
98.654	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
97.746	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
97.170	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
96.266	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
95.305	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
94.479	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
94.148	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
94.078	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
93.989	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
93.648	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
93.606	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
92.574	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
91.761	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
90.973	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
90.328	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
88.963	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
87.516	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
86.786	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
86.762	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
86.651	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
86.468	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
85.112	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
84.928	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
84.666	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
82.955	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
82.889	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
82.669	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
82.640	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
81.900	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
81.898	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
81.826	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
81.342	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
81.183	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
81.113	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
80.750	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
79.647	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
79.375	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
79.164	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
78.911	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
78.460	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
77.880	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
77.873	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
77.595	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
76.398	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
76.248	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
76.138	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
75.753	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
75.290	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
75.187	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
74.744	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
74.723	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
72.007	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
71.589	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
71.463	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
71.343	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
70.887	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
70.184	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
69.616	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
69.273	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
68.701	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
68.593	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
68.407	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
68.111	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
68.016	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
67.289	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
66.146	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
65.894	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
65.434	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
65.235	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
64.707	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
64.652	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
64.385	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
64.213	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
63.266	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
63.123	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
62.866	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
62.865	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
62.547	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
62.271	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
62.034	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
61.748	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
61.076	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
60.589	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
60.521	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
60.185	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
60.102	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
59.881	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
58.934	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
58.778	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
58.748	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
58.725	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
58.675	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
58.674	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
58.605	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
58.172	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
57.436	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
57.431	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
56.942	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
56.931	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
56.923	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
56.836	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
56.743	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
56.459	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
56.324	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
56.126	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
56.084	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
55.936	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
55.900	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
55.335	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
54.432	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
54.418	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
54.081	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
53.203	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
53.125	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
52.635	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
52.411	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
52.298	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
51.998	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
51.495	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
51.357	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
51.347	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
51.027	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
50.784	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
50.444	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
49.947	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
49.097	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
48.941	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
48.883	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
48.407	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
48.038	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
47.803	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
47.358	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
47.013	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
46.818	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
45.088	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
44.980	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
44.848	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
44.493	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
44.396	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
43.132	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
43.105	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
42.755	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
41.989	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
41.970	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
41.542	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
41.196	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
40.569	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
40.521	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
40.340	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
39.925	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
39.147	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
38.753	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
38.720	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
38.700	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
38.694	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
38.651	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
38.651	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
38.644	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
38.535	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
38.514	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
37.896	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
37.843	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
37.124	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
37.006	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
36.288	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
36.178	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
36.045	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
35.461	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
35.422	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
35.383	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
35.370	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
35.255	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
34.125	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
33.631	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
33.397	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
33.239	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
33.138	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
32.719	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
30.984	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
30.683	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
30.121	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
30.084	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
29.163	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
27.550	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
27.539	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
26.817	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
26.550	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
26.457	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
25.707	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
25.049	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
22.987	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
22.314	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
22.284	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
21.932	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
21.877	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
21.676	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
21.313	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
21.154	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
20.801	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
20.032	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
19.999	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
19.989	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
19.961	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
19.940	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
19.514	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.296	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
18.612	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
18.255	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
17.939	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
17.674	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
17.450	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
15.714	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
15.552	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
15.431	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
14.855	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
14.751	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
13.831	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
13.703	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
13.370	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
11.942	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
11.795	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
10.666	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
9.520	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
9.117	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.438	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
8.250	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
7.690	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
7.630	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
6.896	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
6.553	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
5.537	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
5.034	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
4.015	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
3.421	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
3.348	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
3.232	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
3.170	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
2.802	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
2.716	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
2.193	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
1.814	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.576	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.584	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
0.240	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.100	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
-	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-1.442	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-5.305	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-8.271	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-8.872	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-15.729	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-18.429	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-22.537	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-34.584	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-38.782	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
-45.856	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-46.298	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-49.558	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-50.528	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-51.436	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-54.986	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-56.915	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-73.290	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-77.492	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-83.831	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-94.494	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-112.973	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-121.190	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-127.529	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-131.323	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-157.174	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary