krtnu

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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10.85k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
221.489	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
211.340	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
153.477	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
142.916	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
140.244	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
140.153	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
137.516	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
137.147	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
132.312	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
130.941	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
128.394	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
127.544	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
127.016	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
125.966	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
125.087	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
124.837	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
124.433	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
124.182	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
119.089	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
110.745	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
108.691	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
107.758	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
106.805	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
103.464	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
102.954	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
102.025	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
101.129	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
100.971	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
99.443	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
98.458	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
97.120	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
95.141	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
94.982	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
93.283	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
91.805	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
90.341	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
90.135	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
89.462	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
88.773	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
88.448	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
88.314	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
87.471	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
87.188	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
86.258	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
85.691	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
85.336	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
82.830	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
82.303	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
82.061	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
81.926	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
81.554	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
79.611	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
79.280	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
78.906	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
78.719	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
78.254	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
77.493	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
77.393	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
77.321	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
77.011	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
76.863	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
76.244	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
75.627	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
74.839	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
74.444	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
73.701	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
73.663	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
73.331	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
72.848	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
71.718	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
71.710	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
71.479	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
70.466	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
68.411	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
67.908	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
66.556	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
66.485	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
65.966	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
64.985	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
64.490	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
63.827	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
63.730	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
63.712	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
63.671	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
62.520	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
61.809	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
61.693	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
61.471	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
61.340	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
60.879	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
60.300	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
60.079	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
59.880	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
58.966	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
58.813	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
58.686	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
57.613	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
57.593	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
57.537	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
56.614	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
56.170	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
55.293	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
55.126	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
54.391	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
54.285	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
54.102	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
53.887	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
53.603	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
53.354	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
53.253	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
52.792	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
52.749	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
52.234	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
52.178	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
51.707	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
51.692	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
51.218	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
50.875	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
50.734	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
50.425	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
49.508	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
48.963	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
47.807	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
47.649	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
46.343	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
45.514	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
45.221	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
45.022	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
45.000	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
44.897	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
44.849	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
44.408	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
44.156	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
43.345	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
42.878	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
42.137	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
41.803	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
41.675	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
41.654	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
41.611	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
41.420	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
40.982	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
40.136	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
40.062	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
39.968	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
39.172	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
39.027	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
38.862	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
38.308	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
37.876	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
37.273	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
36.388	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
35.709	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
33.959	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
33.294	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
32.344	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
32.338	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
31.643	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
31.436	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
30.398	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
29.525	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
29.278	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
29.191	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
28.367	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
28.306	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
27.892	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
27.486	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
26.895	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
26.535	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
26.304	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
26.085	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
25.818	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
25.425	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
25.320	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
25.164	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
24.721	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
23.934	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
23.869	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
23.794	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
23.736	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
23.174	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
23.040	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
23.025	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
22.899	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
21.905	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
20.584	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
20.315	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
19.545	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
19.265	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
18.010	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
17.737	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
14.916	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
14.857	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
14.000	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
13.033	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
12.973	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
11.289	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
9.403	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
9.167	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
8.791	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
8.623	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
8.306	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
7.910	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
7.606	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
7.504	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
6.366	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
6.225	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
5.840	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
5.313	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
5.216	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
5.127	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
4.840	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
4.134	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
3.570	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
3.549	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
3.436	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
2.599	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
2.545	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
1.625	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
0.988	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.973	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
-0.187	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
-0.695	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-0.887	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-1.636	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-3.306	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-4.221	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-4.769	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
-5.817	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-9.681	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-13.123	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
-15.614	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
-19.951	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-21.421	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-23.348	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-26.269	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
-27.288	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
-28.228	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-31.565	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
-32.460	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-35.568	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
-35.957	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-36.066	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-36.499	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
-40.741	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-46.240	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-51.343	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-54.349	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-60.959	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-61.248	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-64.097	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-68.695	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-77.515	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-83.879	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-89.353	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-116.207	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-131.000	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-141.075	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-143.681	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-164.848	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous