AvrahamEisenberg

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

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3551	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
112.097	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
105.880	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
95.762	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
95.180	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
85.403	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
84.567	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
82.114	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
81.647	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
80.594	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
79.800	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
77.217	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
76.929	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
76.802	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
76.676	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
73.591	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
73.294	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
72.170	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
71.541	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
71.312	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
69.696	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
69.205	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
66.431	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
66.079	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
64.035	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
62.858	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
61.727	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
58.419	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
57.114	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
56.669	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
56.469	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
56.017	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
55.552	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
55.469	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
54.634	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
53.032	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
52.866	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
51.542	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
49.455	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
48.733	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
47.497	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
47.438	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
46.578	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
46.398	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
43.001	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
41.443	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
40.745	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
36.860	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
36.483	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
36.063	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
35.486	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
33.365	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
33.000	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
32.433	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
32.356	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
31.267	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
31.078	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
30.681	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
30.448	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
29.494	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
29.278	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
29.251	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
28.793	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
28.547	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
28.398	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
28.332	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
28.077	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
27.773	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
26.117	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
25.275	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
24.853	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
24.673	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
23.943	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
23.464	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
23.327	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
22.737	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
21.427	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
21.215	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
21.212	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
20.749	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
20.623	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
19.586	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
19.420	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
19.016	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
18.954	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
18.755	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
18.466	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
18.443	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
17.368	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
17.254	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
17.012	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
16.799	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
16.477	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
16.283	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
16.268	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
16.214	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
16.034	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
15.921	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
15.802	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
15.580	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
15.487	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
15.135	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
15.087	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
14.664	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
14.622	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
13.804	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
13.728	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
13.360	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
12.660	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
12.540	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
12.431	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
11.980	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
11.747	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
11.600	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
10.962	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
10.936	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
9.587	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
9.577	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
9.247	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
9.050	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
8.562	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
8.104	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
6.614	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
6.095	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
5.462	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
4.693	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
4.617	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
3.492	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
2.972	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
2.690	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
2.593	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
1.433	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
1.195	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
1.173	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
0.769	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
0.285	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
0.005	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-0.108	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-0.305	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-1.435	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-1.934	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-7.234	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
-9.011	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-9.289	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-9.880	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-17.162	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-29.304	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-30.953	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-40.252	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-49.376	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-52.510	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-54.651	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
-67.109	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-72.922	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-101.650	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-216.756	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
-324.372	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary