darkives

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.01		Weighted Average Score
Score	Coverage	Question	Question Type
106.774	96.0%	How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?	Continuous
75.742	99.7%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?	Continuous
67.408	99.6%	Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?	Binary
56.255	95.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
51.636	99.9%	What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?	Continuous
47.503	74.3%	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
43.920	94.7%	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
43.019	99.2%	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
41.993	100.0%	How many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be approved for consumption by the FDA on July 31, 2025?	Continuous
35.419	21.8%	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
34.811	99.9%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products	Continuous
32.034	99.4%	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
30.757	91.9%	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
28.405	99.9%	Will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to implant a brain-machine interface device in a human before 1 January 2022?	Binary
28.100	98.9%	Will there be armed conflict between racial groups in South Africa before 2023?	Binary
27.975	99.7%	Will total funding in longevity startups worldwide exceed $5bn in the year ending in November 2nd, 2020?	Binary
23.392	99.8%	Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before September 18, 2024?	Binary
22.651	97.8%	Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?	Binary
21.790	19.8%	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
21.643	99.9%	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
21.256	88.2%	Will someone hold their breath for more than 30 minutes before 2025?	Binary
20.696	99.9%	What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?	Continuous
20.527	100.0%	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
19.304	100.0%	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.020	98.9%	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
18.882	99.9%	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
18.679	99.9%	Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?	Binary
18.256	98.1%	PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?	Continuous
17.557	99.7%	Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?	Binary
16.137	19.6%	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
14.440	91.9%	By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?	Binary
14.339	100.0%	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
14.211	99.8%	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
14.006	74.0%	Efficacy confirmation of a new Alzheimer's treatment protocol?	Binary
14.001	99.5%	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
13.981	99.7%	Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
13.910	59.8%	When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
13.664	61.5%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
13.640	99.8%	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
12.945	23.4%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
12.556	31.2%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
12.070	99.9%	How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2022-2024 period?	Continuous
12.059	78.0%	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
11.737	49.2%	Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?	Binary
11.238	21.4%	How many countries will be awarded a B or better for farm animal welfare protection by to the Animal Protection Index by end of 2022?	Continuous
11.100	92.8%	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
11.029	63.9%	Will a scientific mission to the outer solar system be assigned to the Falcon Heavy by mid-2023?	Binary
10.015	99.4%	Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022?	Binary
9.670	99.8%	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
9.654	100.0%	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
8.187	78.1%	Bitcoin Lightning Network Capacity in BTC on 2021-Aug-25	Continuous
8.185	17.9%	When will the US national debt reach $25 trillion?	Continuous
8.025	99.9%	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
7.925	97.4%	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
7.632	10.9%	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
7.486	89.8%	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
6.887	99.4%	Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?	Binary
6.790	24.3%	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
5.923	28.3%	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
5.309	9.3%	Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?	Binary
5.185	28.8%	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
5.098	98.5%	Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?	Binary
4.714	24.2%	How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?	Continuous
4.246	10.1%	What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?	Continuous
4.150	26.9%	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?	Binary
3.836	71.1%	Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?	Binary
3.597	99.8%	What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?	Continuous
3.156	99.6%	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
2.139	99.9%	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
2.115	94.8%	By 2022-10-01, Will Catalonia become an independent state?	Binary
1.879	5.5%	Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?	Binary
1.698	20.0%	Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?	Binary
1.697	99.6%	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
1.469	99.7%	On December 1, 2023, how many companies worldwide will pledge uphold GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat?	Continuous
1.366	3.3%	Will the Brexit Party win any seats at the next UK General Election?	Binary
1.272	23.0%	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
0.870	99.3%	Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?	Binary
0.719	4.7%	How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?	Continuous
0.692	15.7%	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
0.528	99.8%	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
0.386	99.9%	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
0.334	89.6%	Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?	Binary
0.309	100.0%	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
0.157	0.7%	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.144	92.8%	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
0.113	0.6%	Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle?	Binary
0.012	30.5%	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-0.016	0.1%	Pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard by 2021?	Binary
-0.025	74.9%	Funds toward a Solar storm shield begun by 2021?	Binary
-0.628	23.0%	When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-1.164	12.3%	Will a member of President Trump's inner circle be sentenced to jail by 2023?	Binary
-1.383	99.9%	Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2023?	Binary
-1.824	6.8%	When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?	Continuous
-1.976	95.7%	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
-2.127	77.9%	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
-2.547	28.4%	When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?	Continuous
-3.287	75.8%	Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025?	Binary
-4.552	47.4%	Will the world population grow every year from 2016 to 2025 (inclusive)?	Binary
-5.313	82.0%	Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)	Binary
-5.452	99.9%	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
-7.165	81.6%	Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?	Binary
-8.939	85.3%	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
-9.069	99.7%	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
-9.379	94.6%	Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?	Binary
-9.481	96.3%	Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?	Binary
-12.589	99.7%	Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?	Binary
-12.984	94.8%	What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?	Continuous
-14.020	89.3%	Will KIC 9832227 go "red nova" – observable to the naked eye on Earth – by 2024?	Binary
-25.621	99.7%	Will Moon Express have a successful harvest by 2023?	Binary
-27.355	37.4%	When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip?	Continuous
-29.215	93.1%	Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?	Binary
-29.672	99.8%	Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?	Binary
-35.009	99.8%	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
-36.136	89.1%	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
-39.369	99.6%	Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?	Binary
-47.157	98.5%	If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?	Continuous