Zweihander

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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3.179	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
158.159	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
108.881	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
86.627	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
84.619	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
79.613	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
78.609	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
70.201	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
63.042	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
57.906	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
55.422	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
54.568	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
53.064	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
52.327	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
51.313	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
46.166	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
42.405	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
41.607	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
37.876	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
36.174	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
35.010	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
34.018	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
33.152	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
32.587	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
32.075	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
29.755	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
28.894	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
28.839	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
27.772	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
27.584	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
25.671	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
25.571	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
25.531	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
25.456	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
25.435	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
24.328	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
23.111	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.858	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
22.819	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
22.576	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
22.575	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
21.816	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
21.727	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
20.885	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
20.720	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
19.303	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
19.054	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
18.740	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
18.354	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
18.186	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
17.105	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
17.075	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
16.995	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
16.945	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
16.679	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
16.601	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
16.571	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
16.246	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
15.995	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
15.643	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
15.480	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
15.388	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
14.821	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
14.813	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
14.302	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
14.186	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
13.900	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
13.047	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
12.885	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
12.623	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
12.547	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
11.385	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
11.378	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
11.124	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
11.031	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
10.909	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
10.680	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
10.479	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
10.243	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
9.973	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
9.963	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
9.615	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
9.582	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
8.854	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
8.562	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
8.518	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
8.256	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
8.023	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
7.867	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
7.572	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
7.554	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
7.415	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
7.271	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
7.229	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
6.849	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
6.391	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
6.067	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
5.936	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
5.811	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
5.388	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
5.341	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
5.310	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
5.259	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
5.052	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
5.021	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
4.839	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
4.313	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
3.861	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
3.742	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
3.440	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
3.365	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
3.329	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.288	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
2.246	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
2.213	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
2.116	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
1.760	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
1.644	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
1.568	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
1.509	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
1.333	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
1.000	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
0.935	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
0.643	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
0.531	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.336	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.207	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
-0.286	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
-0.297	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
-0.546	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
-1.336	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
-1.428	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
-1.710	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
-1.754	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
-1.786	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-2.423	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-3.251	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-3.432	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-3.752	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
-3.757	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
-3.947	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
-4.049	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
-4.071	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
-4.206	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
-4.468	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-5.162	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
-5.326	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
-5.548	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
-5.672	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
-5.677	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
-6.018	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
-6.086	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
-6.140	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
-6.459	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-6.651	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
-6.966	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
-7.361	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
-7.862	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-8.414	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-8.536	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
-9.185	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
-10.174	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
-10.250	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
-10.428	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
-10.569	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
-10.763	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-11.423	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
-12.391	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
-12.553	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
-12.590	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-13.244	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-13.530	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
-13.675	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
-13.690	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
-14.183	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
-14.665	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
-15.073	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
-15.134	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-17.328	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-17.460	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
-17.522	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-17.531	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
-18.138	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
-18.150	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
-18.315	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-18.698	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-19.590	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-21.563	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-21.726	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
-21.727	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
-21.872	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
-23.446	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-23.643	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-25.460	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-25.578	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
-27.179	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
-27.704	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
-28.347	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-31.007	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-32.023	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-32.347	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
-34.225	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-34.860	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
-42.930	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-44.572	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
-47.320	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
-54.113	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-54.259	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-70.416	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-76.543	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
-110.838	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
-133.853	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-179.435	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-202.256	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous