elifland

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.16	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.587	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
97.077	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
91.012	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
85.208	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
84.085	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
75.053	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
67.711	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
67.057	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
62.516	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
57.529	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
53.783	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
52.239	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
49.240	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
48.825	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
45.880	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
43.979	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
42.923	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
41.386	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
40.508	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
39.798	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
39.798	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
39.543	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
39.253	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
39.166	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
36.805	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
36.527	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
36.430	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
35.835	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
35.790	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
35.720	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
35.065	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
33.812	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
33.798	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
32.620	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
32.500	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
32.476	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
32.423	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
30.683	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
30.354	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
29.756	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
29.199	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
29.093	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
28.750	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
28.526	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
28.215	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
28.086	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
27.890	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
27.769	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
27.003	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
26.215	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
25.802	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
25.484	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
24.589	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
24.338	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
24.264	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
23.971	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
23.946	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
23.711	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
23.639	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
23.550	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
23.021	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
22.592	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
22.450	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
22.113	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
21.955	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
21.947	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
21.587	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
21.561	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
21.558	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
21.507	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
21.452	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
21.413	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
21.264	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
21.190	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
21.111	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
21.080	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
20.354	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
20.034	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
19.884	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
19.599	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
19.475	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
19.082	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
19.066	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
19.057	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
18.958	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
18.434	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
18.214	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
18.144	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
17.961	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
17.904	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
17.746	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
17.656	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
17.510	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
17.266	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
17.246	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
16.901	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
16.631	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
16.475	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
16.461	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
16.069	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
15.702	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
15.564	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
15.068	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
15.023	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
14.908	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
14.899	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
14.860	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
14.738	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
14.430	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
14.417	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
14.379	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
14.366	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
14.154	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
14.019	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
13.854	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
13.736	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
13.591	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
13.550	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
13.434	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
13.369	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
13.078	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
12.978	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
12.739	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.729	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
12.609	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
12.443	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
12.441	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
12.326	Will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice for France by May 1?	Binary
12.121	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.088	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
11.901	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
11.498	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
11.493	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
11.458	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
11.438	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
11.436	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
11.426	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
11.386	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
11.321	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
11.297	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
11.098	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
10.896	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
10.896	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
10.893	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
10.701	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
10.643	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
10.582	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
10.464	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
10.425	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
10.286	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
10.140	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
10.133	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
10.032	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
9.807	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
9.723	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
9.669	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
9.484	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
9.284	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
9.243	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
9.047	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
8.971	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
8.874	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
8.810	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
8.713	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
8.612	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
8.587	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
8.572	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
8.521	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
8.468	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
8.433	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
8.274	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
8.232	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
8.130	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
7.988	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
7.810	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
7.602	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
7.571	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
7.445	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
7.320	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
7.318	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
7.311	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
7.278	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
6.943	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
6.599	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
6.539	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
6.315	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
6.022	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
5.999	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
5.908	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
5.894	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
5.877	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
5.699	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.627	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
5.523	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
5.313	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
5.246	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
5.125	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.038	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
4.851	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
4.676	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
4.388	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
4.300	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
4.274	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
3.957	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
3.646	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
3.361	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
3.231	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
3.185	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
3.108	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
2.853	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
2.769	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
2.737	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
2.525	Will New York City close most of its public schools due to COVID-19 before 2021?	Binary
2.422	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
2.367	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
2.365	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
2.344	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
2.221	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
2.219	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
2.117	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
1.533	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
1.310	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
1.261	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
1.209	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
1.129	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.022	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.831	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
0.774	Will at least 10,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.631	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.571	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
0.504	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
0.351	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
0.312	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
0.240	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
0.177	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
0.077	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.051	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
0.043	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
-0.480	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
-0.498	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
-0.505	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
-0.694	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-0.828	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
-0.867	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-0.873	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
-0.905	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
-0.920	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
-1.034	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-1.077	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
-1.516	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-1.637	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
-1.930	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-2.181	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-2.356	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-2.830	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
-3.641	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-4.317	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
-4.693	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
-4.855	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
-5.055	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
-5.111	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-5.137	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-5.786	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-6.168	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-6.231	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-6.511	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-7.032	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-7.400	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-8.926	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-10.352	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-10.922	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
-11.217	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
-11.871	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
-12.537	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-13.097	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-13.336	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
-15.831	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
-17.392	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
-19.530	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
-19.531	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
-22.111	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
-24.809	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-26.162	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-26.254	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-28.496	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-30.584	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-31.791	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-32.269	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-32.396	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-33.438	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-45.549	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-49.822	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-56.957	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-72.728	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous