galen

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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5.151	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
94.103	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
67.435	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
52.571	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
45.968	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
43.270	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
39.375	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
37.107	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
34.764	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
34.461	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
33.195	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
32.004	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.125	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
29.005	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
28.268	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
25.323	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
23.418	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
21.884	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
20.498	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
20.204	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
20.110	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
19.368	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
19.307	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
18.880	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
18.286	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
16.881	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
16.084	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
15.776	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
15.387	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
14.867	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
14.656	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
14.546	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
14.333	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
14.298	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
13.924	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
13.541	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
13.290	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
12.658	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
12.355	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
12.226	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
12.167	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
12.087	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
12.086	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
11.824	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
11.754	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
11.697	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
11.580	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
11.431	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
11.222	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
11.137	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
11.015	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
10.579	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
10.247	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
10.144	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
10.013	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
9.946	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
9.795	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
9.648	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
9.557	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
9.482	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
9.296	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
9.261	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
9.194	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
9.141	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
8.933	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
8.868	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
8.819	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
8.612	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
8.358	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
8.332	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
8.127	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
7.759	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
7.757	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
7.675	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
7.584	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
7.460	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
7.308	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
7.171	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
7.092	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
6.978	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
6.965	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
6.841	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
6.705	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
6.694	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
6.659	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
6.658	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
6.527	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
6.439	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
6.420	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
6.236	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
6.190	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
6.119	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
6.088	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
6.077	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
6.034	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
5.907	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
5.735	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
5.616	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
5.574	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
5.385	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
5.345	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
5.321	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
5.231	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
5.205	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
5.167	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
5.153	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
5.139	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
5.076	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
4.994	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
4.982	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
4.925	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
4.879	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
4.830	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
4.640	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
4.632	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
4.586	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
4.490	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
4.481	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
4.375	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
4.288	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
4.273	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
4.271	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
4.256	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
4.246	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
4.175	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
4.158	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
4.116	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
4.115	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
4.070	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
3.939	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
3.726	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.722	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
3.633	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
3.545	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
3.466	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
3.432	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
3.265	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
3.246	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
3.232	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
3.109	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
3.108	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
3.066	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
2.996	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
2.712	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
2.424	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
2.284	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
2.169	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
1.987	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
1.830	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
1.765	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
1.688	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
1.621	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
1.533	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
1.507	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
1.310	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
1.248	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
1.189	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
1.073	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
1.016	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
0.786	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
0.699	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
0.559	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
0.550	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
0.529	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
0.463	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
0.190	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.055	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
0.017	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
0.001	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-0.385	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
-0.484	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
-0.527	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
-0.580	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
-0.658	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
-0.911	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
-0.916	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-0.977	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
-1.185	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
-1.438	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-1.441	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-1.513	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-1.732	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-2.079	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-2.602	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
-2.800	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-3.252	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
-3.382	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-4.920	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
-5.808	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
-6.137	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-6.305	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-6.337	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-6.451	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-6.965	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-7.767	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-9.599	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
-13.132	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
-13.546	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-18.953	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-19.825	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
-20.480	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
-21.156	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-31.845	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
-32.774	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
-33.956	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
-36.114	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-39.098	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-43.132	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-44.184	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
-57.587	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-68.886	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-74.129	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous