Cory

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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12.71	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
112.770	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
98.656	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
78.517	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
72.317	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
61.440	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
59.767	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
58.492	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
58.374	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
55.471	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
52.311	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
49.246	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
49.122	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
47.721	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
46.147	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
46.006	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
45.713	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
45.016	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
44.966	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
42.680	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
41.459	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
40.040	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
38.913	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
36.616	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
35.991	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
35.662	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
35.316	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
34.730	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
33.968	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
33.544	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
33.367	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
32.891	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
32.525	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
32.062	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
31.635	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
31.392	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
30.786	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
30.590	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
30.268	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
29.808	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
29.540	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
29.072	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
28.972	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
27.424	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
27.322	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
26.887	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
26.298	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
25.415	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
25.340	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
24.772	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
24.584	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
24.338	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
22.014	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
20.975	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
20.966	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
19.315	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
19.298	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
19.249	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
18.986	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
18.975	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
18.730	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
18.573	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
18.359	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
18.346	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
18.323	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
17.483	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
17.309	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
16.291	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
16.157	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
16.149	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
15.376	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
15.360	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
15.135	Will the US federal government shut down all non-essential services by 2020-04-19?	Binary
14.858	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
14.732	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
14.679	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
13.543	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
13.454	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
13.330	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
13.093	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
12.944	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
12.855	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.624	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
12.519	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
12.398	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
12.201	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
11.604	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
11.066	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
10.909	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
10.540	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
10.221	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
10.014	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
9.865	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
9.835	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
9.694	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
9.615	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
9.470	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
9.262	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
9.057	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
8.849	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
8.749	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
8.439	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
8.296	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
7.031	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
6.884	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
6.809	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
6.763	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
6.740	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
6.734	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
6.697	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
6.620	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
6.468	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
6.405	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
5.944	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
5.784	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
5.733	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
5.376	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
5.244	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
5.217	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
5.052	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
4.939	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
4.658	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
4.640	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
4.509	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
4.438	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
4.309	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
4.279	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
4.180	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
4.104	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
4.102	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
4.099	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
4.063	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
4.036	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
3.724	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
3.709	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
3.680	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
3.557	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
3.507	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
3.446	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
3.160	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
2.913	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
2.788	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
2.735	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
2.643	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
2.584	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
2.546	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
2.373	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
2.262	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
2.245	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
2.239	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
2.109	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
2.077	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
2.057	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
2.029	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.996	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
1.961	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
1.617	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
1.530	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
1.414	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
1.354	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
1.295	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
1.290	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.274	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
1.153	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
1.077	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
0.983	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
0.932	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.869	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.686	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
0.642	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
0.642	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.598	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.413	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.374	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.323	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
0.263	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
0.201	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.174	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
0.154	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.133	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.072	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
0.071	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
0.012	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-0.015	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
-0.030	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-0.243	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-0.471	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
-0.705	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
-0.770	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
-1.323	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-1.530	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
-1.537	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
-1.841	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
-1.932	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-2.224	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-2.835	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-3.514	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
-4.715	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-5.879	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
-5.919	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-5.956	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
-6.354	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
-6.518	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-6.587	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-7.027	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
-7.492	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-9.523	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
-9.948	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-13.418	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-16.510	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-17.875	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-22.052	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-22.637	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-23.471	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
-33.881	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
-42.506	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-57.790	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary