lars3loff

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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4.896	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
88.006	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
61.219	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
48.522	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
46.230	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
42.738	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
41.565	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
41.517	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
38.660	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
38.291	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
37.959	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
36.842	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
35.170	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
34.877	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
34.157	Will it be reported that Trump has tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020?	Binary
32.103	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
31.821	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
30.008	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
29.109	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
26.776	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
25.370	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
24.668	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
24.545	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
23.635	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
22.502	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
21.292	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
21.028	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
20.596	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
19.204	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
18.315	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
15.620	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
15.530	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
14.315	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
14.128	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
14.125	Will any city or town in the US be put under mandated lockdown by the end of 2020 due to the novel coronavirus outbreak?	Binary
12.875	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
12.545	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
12.207	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
12.095	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
11.878	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
11.445	Will Boris Johnson recover from COVID-19?	Binary
11.312	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
11.294	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
10.805	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
10.619	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
10.115	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
9.638	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
9.562	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
9.434	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
9.388	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
9.182	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
8.968	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
8.637	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
8.625	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
8.589	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
8.278	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
8.233	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
7.955	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.791	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
7.294	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
7.015	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
6.979	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
6.778	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
6.559	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
6.119	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
5.325	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
5.248	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
5.099	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
4.957	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
4.797	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.109	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
3.623	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
3.467	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
3.312	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
3.300	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
3.180	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
3.175	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
3.138	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
2.935	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
2.828	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
2.736	Will another location overtake Hubei as the location of the largest COVID-19 outbreak before 2021?	Binary
2.638	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
2.459	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
2.193	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
2.096	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
1.959	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
1.798	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
1.772	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.728	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
1.688	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
1.656	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
1.473	Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympics be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
1.451	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
1.395	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
1.394	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
1.259	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
1.187	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.973	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
0.814	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
0.794	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
0.759	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
0.745	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
0.704	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
0.612	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
0.511	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
0.456	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
0.454	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.385	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
0.355	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
0.180	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
0.163	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
0.117	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
0.113	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
0.080	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
0.073	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
0.044	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.042	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.041	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-0.146	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
-0.171	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-0.260	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-0.325	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
-0.395	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.612	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-0.629	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-0.646	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
-0.745	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
-0.826	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
-1.346	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
-1.394	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
-1.690	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-1.808	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-1.837	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-1.870	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
-2.328	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-2.541	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
-2.614	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-2.715	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-2.761	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
-2.915	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-3.302	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-3.726	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
-3.911	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
-3.992	Will Airbnb's services be suspended in any country due to COVID-19-related concerns before June 27th, 2020?	Binary
-4.044	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-4.045	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
-4.512	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
-4.567	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
-4.817	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-4.888	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-5.074	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-5.096	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
-5.348	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
-6.354	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-6.651	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
-6.877	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
-8.435	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
-8.477	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
-8.767	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
-9.015	Will the 2020 Eurovision Song Contest be cancelled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-10.084	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-12.186	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
-12.329	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-12.545	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
-12.566	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-14.153	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
-14.661	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-14.713	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-14.890	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
-16.117	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
-17.644	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-17.916	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
-18.002	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-18.353	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-20.020	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
-22.055	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
-23.020	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
-23.449	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-39.928	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
-45.642	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
-46.339	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous