SimonM

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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8.596	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
72.924	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
72.506	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
62.657	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
58.220	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
57.576	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
49.322	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
42.669	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
38.673	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
35.892	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
35.716	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
35.619	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
35.044	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
34.792	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
34.436	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
34.133	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
30.076	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
29.976	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
29.391	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
29.297	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
27.226	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
24.966	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
24.510	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
24.116	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
24.089	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
23.016	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
21.384	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
21.158	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
20.917	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
19.705	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
19.121	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
18.869	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
18.868	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
18.774	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
18.732	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
17.647	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
17.639	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
17.443	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
17.187	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
17.179	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
16.982	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
16.906	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
16.430	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
15.657	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
15.637	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
15.500	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
15.149	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
15.120	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
14.607	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
14.537	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
14.500	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
14.064	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.707	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
13.473	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
13.126	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
13.057	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
12.988	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
12.809	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
12.804	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.798	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
12.735	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
12.618	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
12.478	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
12.381	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
12.323	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
12.052	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
11.787	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
11.497	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
11.327	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
11.245	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
11.205	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
11.196	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
11.184	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
10.922	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
10.662	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
10.091	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
9.760	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
9.520	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
9.399	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
9.368	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
9.300	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
9.169	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
9.142	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
9.038	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
9.006	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
8.990	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
8.814	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
8.225	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
7.956	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
7.862	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
7.852	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
7.729	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
7.670	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
7.626	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
7.571	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
7.468	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
6.813	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
6.626	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
6.293	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
6.283	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
6.153	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
6.132	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
5.912	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
5.865	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
5.859	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
5.840	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
5.277	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
5.024	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
4.931	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
4.906	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
4.902	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
4.605	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
4.547	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
4.485	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
4.454	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.383	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
4.169	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
3.996	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
3.907	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
3.800	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
3.780	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
3.764	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
3.487	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
3.430	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
3.283	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
3.239	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
3.088	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
2.886	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
2.756	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
2.647	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
2.619	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
2.501	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
2.453	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
2.378	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
2.259	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
2.240	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
2.138	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
2.129	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
2.066	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
1.949	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
1.941	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
1.924	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.743	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
1.742	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
1.658	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
1.650	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
1.644	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
1.633	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
1.568	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.409	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
1.307	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
1.069	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
1.011	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
0.996	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
0.951	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
0.912	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
0.822	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.815	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.731	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
0.702	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
0.690	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
0.652	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.575	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
0.498	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
0.073	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-0.094	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
-0.137	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-0.346	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
-1.060	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
-1.076	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
-1.102	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-2.031	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
-3.033	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-3.162	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
-3.898	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-3.961	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-4.942	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-5.028	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-6.894	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-8.250	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
-9.201	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
-10.467	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
-11.385	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-22.531	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-28.903	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-43.455	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
-47.101	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-66.962	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-81.591	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
-96.229	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous