JonathanShi

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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7.625	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
135.481	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
98.019	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
71.950	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
61.351	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
55.317	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
48.785	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
41.722	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
41.262	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
40.592	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
39.219	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
38.639	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
35.417	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
33.136	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
30.569	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
30.490	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
30.396	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
28.433	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
27.282	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
26.723	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
23.981	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
23.373	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
22.688	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
22.652	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
21.958	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
21.930	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
21.119	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
20.777	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
20.740	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
19.801	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
19.417	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
18.764	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
18.635	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
18.006	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
17.955	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
16.382	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
15.267	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
14.821	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
14.742	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
14.412	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
14.233	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
14.161	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
12.577	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
12.472	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.454	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
11.866	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
11.674	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
11.485	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
11.196	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
11.142	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
10.888	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
10.850	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
10.485	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
10.449	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
10.309	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
10.271	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
10.098	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
10.009	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
9.894	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
9.880	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
9.595	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
9.387	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
8.993	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
8.439	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
8.370	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
8.312	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
8.092	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
7.979	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
7.884	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
7.883	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.866	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
7.712	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
7.605	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
7.399	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.385	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
7.378	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
7.263	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
7.230	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
7.212	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
7.165	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
7.041	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous
7.008	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
6.976	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
6.960	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
6.898	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
6.611	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
6.393	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
6.112	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
6.091	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
6.068	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
5.516	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
5.488	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
5.413	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
5.282	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
5.085	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
5.083	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
5.044	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.018	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
5.015	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
4.954	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
4.615	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
4.476	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
4.353	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
4.340	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
4.268	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
4.048	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
3.784	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
3.767	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
3.619	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
3.479	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
3.449	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
3.301	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
3.170	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
3.031	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
3.028	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
3.025	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
3.012	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
3.008	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
2.948	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
2.896	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
2.723	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
2.690	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
2.629	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
2.563	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
2.560	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
2.426	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
2.380	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
2.126	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
2.023	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
2.009	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
1.997	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
1.984	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
1.966	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
1.962	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.939	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
1.937	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
1.903	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
1.838	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
1.809	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
1.779	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
1.772	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
1.756	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
1.749	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
1.745	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
1.720	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
1.633	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
1.591	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
1.440	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
1.381	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
1.364	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
1.142	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
1.132	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
1.095	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
0.999	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
0.840	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
0.825	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
0.819	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
0.713	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.712	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
0.651	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
0.609	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.546	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.534	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.501	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
0.458	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
0.424	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.421	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
0.383	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
0.361	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
0.361	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
0.360	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.350	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
0.286	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
0.257	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
0.255	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
0.243	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
0.212	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
0.211	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
0.202	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
0.198	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
0.154	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
0.130	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
0.128	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
0.120	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
0.093	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
0.050	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
0.044	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
0.007	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
0.002	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-0.060	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
-0.144	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-0.268	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-0.407	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
-0.437	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
-0.508	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
-0.649	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-0.748	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
-0.784	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
-0.824	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-1.092	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
-1.230	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
-1.752	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
-1.917	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
-2.371	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
-2.614	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-3.244	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
-5.848	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
-6.822	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-8.245	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-8.778	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
-13.620	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
-14.571	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
-112.144	How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO European region by March 27?	Continuous
-140.397	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous