PepeS

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

10.55	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
136.889	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
113.209	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
85.203	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
77.208	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
68.668	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
67.570	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
62.316	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
60.118	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
60.037	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
55.622	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
52.940	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
51.638	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
49.432	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.853	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
46.973	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
45.628	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
44.623	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
43.870	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
41.840	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
41.342	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
40.088	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
39.633	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.293	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
39.073	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
38.907	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
37.948	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
37.088	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
35.756	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
35.418	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
34.967	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
34.413	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
32.335	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
31.876	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
31.184	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
29.977	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
29.366	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
29.163	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
28.536	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
26.197	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
26.058	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
26.036	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
25.269	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
24.172	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
23.945	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
23.928	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
23.672	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
23.161	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
22.870	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.202	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
22.006	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
21.883	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
21.317	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
20.627	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
20.159	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
20.107	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
20.106	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
19.951	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
18.490	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
18.360	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
18.075	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
17.700	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
17.345	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
17.338	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
17.331	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
17.305	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
17.015	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
16.338	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
16.229	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
15.801	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
15.684	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
15.584	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
15.499	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
15.488	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
15.321	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
15.102	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
14.559	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
14.311	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
14.022	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
13.700	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
13.279	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
13.177	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
13.107	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
13.054	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
12.829	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
12.433	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
12.319	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
12.305	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
12.138	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
12.010	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
11.874	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
11.751	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
11.164	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
10.610	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
10.587	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
10.174	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
10.108	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
9.865	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
9.829	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
9.623	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
9.500	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
9.229	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
9.137	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
9.070	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
8.848	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
8.808	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
8.615	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
8.587	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
8.512	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
8.448	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
8.339	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
8.053	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
7.855	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
7.687	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
7.685	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
7.509	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
7.474	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
7.441	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
7.119	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
6.869	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
6.648	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
6.608	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
6.319	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
6.232	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
5.648	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
5.471	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
5.331	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
5.302	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
5.300	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
5.217	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
5.211	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
5.163	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
5.080	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
5.079	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
4.497	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
4.359	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
4.281	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
4.266	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
4.036	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
3.846	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
3.637	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
3.619	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
3.544	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
3.470	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
3.310	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
3.251	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
3.220	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
3.139	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
2.570	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
2.529	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
2.518	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
1.877	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
1.776	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
1.747	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
1.706	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
1.698	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
1.508	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
1.452	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
1.394	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
1.363	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
1.028	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
0.965	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.704	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
0.594	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
0.450	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
0.283	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
0.201	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.040	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
0.001	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
-0.149	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
-0.492	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
-0.694	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
-0.761	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
-1.410	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-1.521	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
-1.772	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
-2.081	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-2.482	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-2.706	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
-2.820	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
-2.912	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
-2.962	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-2.973	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
-3.896	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
-4.550	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
-4.714	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-8.112	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
-8.531	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
-11.744	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-13.090	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
-13.394	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
-14.328	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-15.756	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
-16.449	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
-17.814	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-19.357	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-19.414	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-22.078	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
-25.410	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
-26.216	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-29.237	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-29.634	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
-30.609	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
-37.964	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-38.276	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
-38.519	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
-38.972	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
-40.469	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-41.016	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-50.795	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
-57.185	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-59.925	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-61.309	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-65.407	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-75.666	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous