PepeS

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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13.41	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
169.524	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
89.505	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
85.128	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
84.578	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
82.195	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
78.716	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
75.445	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
72.035	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
70.052	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
65.404	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
60.104	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
55.181	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
54.136	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
50.858	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
49.400	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
47.815	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
46.878	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
46.708	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
45.015	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
42.798	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
41.753	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
41.644	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
38.449	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
36.414	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
36.392	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
35.136	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
34.758	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
34.420	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
34.170	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
33.938	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
33.626	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
33.560	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
32.920	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
32.807	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
32.013	Will Trumps Rally in Phoenix at the Dream City Church result in a spike of COVID-19 infections?	Binary
31.496	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
30.659	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
30.420	LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?	Continuous
30.202	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
30.185	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
30.141	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
29.866	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
29.651	How many billions of dollars will the US trade deficit be in December 2020?	Continuous
29.592	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
29.113	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
28.935	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
27.659	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
26.697	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
26.588	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
25.049	LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?	Continuous
24.774	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
24.155	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
24.029	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
23.336	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
23.167	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
22.935	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
22.077	What will the total retail sales including food services be for December 2020?	Continuous
21.825	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
21.463	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
21.286	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
20.804	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
20.516	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
20.411	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
20.262	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
20.262	LRT 1.2: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in the US?	Continuous
20.152	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
19.911	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
19.896	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
19.459	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
19.273	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
19.012	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
18.979	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
18.559	Will the Coup-o-meter enter "Attempted Coup" or "Coup" territory by February 1st 2021?	Binary
18.508	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
18.472	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
18.289	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
18.043	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
17.892	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
17.819	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
17.785	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
17.464	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
16.999	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
16.969	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
16.836	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
16.033	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
15.884	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
15.651	LRT 1.3: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Illinois?	Continuous
15.633	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
15.472	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
14.765	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
14.759	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
14.582	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
14.542	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
14.498	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
14.355	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
14.323	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
14.316	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
14.284	LRT 2.3.5: Will total newly weekly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on or after June 20th?	Binary
14.279	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
14.091	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
14.043	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
14.020	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
13.881	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
13.779	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
13.623	How many COVID-2019 cases in Europe will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.606	LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?	Continuous
13.463	LRT 2.3.3: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 30th or the 7-day period ending on June 6th?	Binary
13.399	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
13.390	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
13.366	How many total COVID-2019 cases in the USA will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
13.326	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
12.807	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
12.435	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
12.414	How many (cumulative) total confirmed cases of COVID-2019 will be reported in the United Kingdom on April the 27th?	Continuous
12.389	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
12.343	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
12.245	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
12.172	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
12.155	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
12.075	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
12.028	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
11.961	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
11.876	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
11.825	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
11.698	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
11.675	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
11.610	How many COVID-2019 cases will be confirmed in the location with the most cases outside of China on April the 27th?	Continuous
11.595	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
11.349	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
11.299	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
11.173	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
11.088	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
11.061	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
11.049	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
10.900	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
10.797	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
10.564	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
10.556	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
10.283	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
10.249	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
10.135	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
9.937	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
9.796	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
9.763	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
9.502	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
9.375	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
9.026	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
9.024	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
8.973	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
8.965	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
8.526	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
8.384	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for December 2020?	Continuous
8.232	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
8.174	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
8.142	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
8.136	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
8.098	Will at least one Metaculus user report a positive test result for novel coronavirus by the end of 2020?	Binary
7.934	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
7.768	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
7.626	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
7.598	Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?	Binary
7.499	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
7.293	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
7.283	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
7.262	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
6.877	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
6.744	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
6.727	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
6.674	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
6.597	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
6.502	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
6.488	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
6.092	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
6.005	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
5.808	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
5.788	What will the April 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
5.697	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
5.686	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" that they, someone in their family or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus?	Continuous
5.668	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
5.612	How much will the SENS research foundation raise in their 2020 end of year fundraiser?	Continuous
5.593	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
5.442	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
4.990	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
4.803	How many contests will Bernie Sanders win in the 2020 Democratic Primaries?	Continuous
4.763	Will a major metropolitan area in the US, EU, or the UK experience a food shortage due to COVID-19 before June 6th, 2020?	Binary
4.743	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
4.672	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
4.647	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
4.611	What will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report as the 2020 Q1 gross business income?	Continuous
4.595	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
4.585	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
4.495	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
4.309	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
4.305	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
4.193	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
4.142	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
4.124	What will the quarter-on-quarter US Q1 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
4.101	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
4.065	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
4.006	Will a major US website crash due to internet traffic in April?	Binary
3.763	LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?	Binary
3.631	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
3.593	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
3.579	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
3.524	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
3.461	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
3.417	How many COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands will be confirmed on April the 27th?	Continuous
3.359	LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?	Continuous
3.351	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
3.263	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
3.156	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
3.084	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
3.084	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
3.070	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
2.788	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
2.736	LRT 2.3.2: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 16th or the 7-day period ending on May 23?	Binary
2.684	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
2.643	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
2.565	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
2.432	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
2.389	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
2.323	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
2.295	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
2.087	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
1.890	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
1.862	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
1.593	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
1.483	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.386	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
1.323	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
1.264	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
1.237	Will the Emergency Telework Act (S.3561) become law by 4/25/20?	Binary
1.220	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
1.150	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
0.965	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.904	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
0.724	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
0.492	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
0.483	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
0.333	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
0.313	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
0.313	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
0.288	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
0.172	When will Chicago CTA subway cars reopen for non-essential travel?	Continuous
0.103	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.043	Will at least 100,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
-0.002	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-0.359	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
-0.363	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
-0.723	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
-0.774	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-0.868	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
-0.893	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
-1.116	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-1.458	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
-1.486	On May 1st, what percentage of Americans will be "very worried" about the coronavirus’s effect on the U.S. economy?	Continuous
-1.571	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
-1.617	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
-2.100	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
-2.137	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
-2.176	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
-2.226	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-2.384	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
-2.733	LRT 2.3.4: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on June 13th or the 7-day period ending on June 20th?	Binary
-2.881	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-3.094	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
-3.388	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
-3.685	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
-4.060	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-4.694	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
-4.870	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
-4.984	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
-5.019	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
-5.097	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
-5.163	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
-5.197	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
-5.313	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
-6.088	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-6.390	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-8.225	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
-10.310	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
-10.469	LRT 2.4: What will the average number of new daily confirmed cases be, over the period from 10th, till May 16th, in the state of Georgia?	Continuous
-11.096	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-12.150	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
-12.468	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
-16.052	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-22.185	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-26.718	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-30.699	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
-31.877	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
-44.458	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for December 2020?	Continuous