krtnu

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2020

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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11.57	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
177.819	Which value will Metaculus least predict?	Continuous
121.344	How many successful faithless electoral votes will there be in the 2020 election?	Continuous
108.583	What will be the peak unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2020?	Continuous
103.866	Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
103.659	What will the US Q3 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
92.744	CPI-U for October 2020	Continuous
83.533	What will be the S&P 500 end-of-day low in 2020?	Continuous
79.631	Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?	Binary
77.830	How many YouTube views will Despacito have on January 12, 2021?	Continuous
67.843	When will the second US presidential debate take place?	Continuous
65.049	EIA Petroleum Status Report - October 2020	Continuous
62.173	How many post-suspension games will be played in the resumed 2019-2020 NBA regular season?	Continuous
60.502	When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?	Continuous
57.332	How many US state governors, members of the Supreme Court, and members of Congress will die from COVID-19 in 2020?	Continuous
56.602	How many total games will be played in the MLB 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
54.804	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in October?	Continuous
53.710	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of August?	Continuous
52.272	What percentage of US voters will support the Black Lives Matter movement on election day 2020?	Continuous
51.924	Will the S&P 500 close higher for 2020?	Binary
51.342	CPI-U for September 2020	Continuous
50.537	What will the August 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
49.523	What destructiveness rank will LNU Lightning Complex fires reach?	Continuous
48.857	How many seats will the Australian Greens Party hold in the ACT after the 2020 Territory Election?	Continuous
46.766	Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit at the end of 2020?	Binary
46.607	EIA Petroleum Status Report - September 2020	Continuous
46.171	What will the magnitude of most severe earthquake to strike California in 2020 be?	Continuous
44.988	What will US dining activity be in August 2020?	Continuous
42.579	What proportion of House Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
42.119	How many months of 2020 will be declared "earth's warmest on record" by NOAA?	Continuous
42.029	Will Democrats win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
40.588	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?	Continuous
39.519	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of September?	Continuous
39.370	What will the October 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
39.166	How many initial jobless claims will be filed on average in September 2020?	Continuous
37.612	Will Donald Trump tweet that Bernie Sanders is a communist before the 2020 election?	Binary
37.334	Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?	Binary
37.203	What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2021?	Continuous
37.079	Will there be a terrorist attack in an OECD founding member state causing more than 3 deaths between November 3rd 2020 and up until March 1st 2021?	Binary
37.066	How many more Starship prototypes will be destroyed before one flies?	Continuous
36.260	Will there be at least 10 fatalites caused in post-election political violence in the United States?	Binary
34.765	What will Tesla's net income be in Q3 2020?	Continuous
33.480	What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?	Continuous
33.129	Will J.K. Rowling’s “The Ickabog” reach #1 on Amazon.co.uk’s bestseller list within a week of its release?	Binary
32.759	What will the top GPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
32.222	When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?	Continuous
32.006	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of June?	Continuous
30.900	Total Retail Sales in September 2020	Continuous
29.515	Will more than five of the ten highest grossing films in 2020 pass the Bechdel test?	Binary
29.245	What will the September 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
28.522	Will a general election be held in Mali before 2021?	Binary
28.289	What will voter turnout be for the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
27.849	Total Retail Sales in October 2020	Continuous
27.301	[Short fuse]: Will Tesla's stock price close below $1,000 per share before 2021?	Binary
27.022	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of September?	Continuous
26.609	Will 3Blue1Brown begin a new video series in the month of July?	Binary
25.911	Will global carbon emissions in 2020 be higher than they were in 2019?	Binary
25.740	Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be extended or replaced by its expiration on February 5th 2021?	Binary
25.687	How many infections of COVID-19 confirmed by testing will be reported before 2021?	Continuous
25.115	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for November 2020?	Continuous
24.257	Will Whole Woman's Health be overturned in 2020?	Binary
24.241	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for December 2020	Continuous
23.625	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 18, 2020)	Continuous
23.317	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 4th quarter of 2020?	Continuous
23.217	Will Trump's pants catch fire on at least five more occasions than Biden's during the month of July?	Binary
23.124	How much transit activity will there be in the San Francisco Bay Area in the last week of July?	Continuous
22.978	What will the Brent Crude oil closing price be on December 31 2020?	Continuous
22.762	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 2nd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
22.728	What will Tesla's GAAP net income be in Q4 2020?	Continuous
21.703	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
21.248	What fraction of the US Congress will be held by women following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
20.973	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 3rd quarter of 2020?	Continuous
20.834	What will be the doubling time of COVID-19 cases during the peak growth period in 2020?	Continuous
20.833	What will Virtu's Q3 2020 trading income be?	Continuous
20.720	Will 538 outperform The Economist forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
20.362	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of July?	Continuous
20.195	[Short Fuse] Will Warsaw (the capital of Poland) become a red epidemic zone before the 24th of October 2020?	Binary
20.171	When will @JoeBiden reach 10% as many Twitter followers as @realdonaldtrump?	Continuous
19.718	What fraction of US Congress seats will be held by people of color following the election on November 3, 2020?	Continuous
19.490	What proportion of House Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
19.192	Will the UK government change its guidance to recommend face coverings in schools before they close?	Binary
18.967	[Short-Fuse] Will the NBA playoffs finish as planned?	Binary
18.859	Will Beyond Meat outperform the the general U.S. stock market in 2020?	Binary
18.567	What will the Metaculus community average log score be for COVID-19 related questions on 20 Jan 2021?	Continuous
18.558	Will the average world temperature in 2020 be higher than in 2019?	Binary
18.348	If he runs, how many votes will Kanye West win in the 2020 US presidential election?	Continuous
18.181	[Short-fuse] Will Donald Trump's Tulsa Oklahoma rally on June 20 result in a spike of COVID-19 cases?	Binary
18.084	What will Toyota Motor Corporation (TM)'s market capitalisation be on January 1st 2021 in billions of US$?	Continuous
18.068	Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?	Binary
18.003	Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?	Binary
17.997	Will the artist who performs 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be the winner of a reality television show?	Binary
17.515	How many structures will be destroyed by wildfires in California in 2020?	Continuous
17.380	How many paid memberships will Netflix have worldwide on December 31st 2020?	Continuous
17.233	How long will it take to listen to every episode of the 80,000 Hours Podcast released in 2020?	Continuous
16.559	What will the top CPU score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
16.494	Will Apple announce plans to make ARM-based Mac at WWDC 2020?	Binary
16.219	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile between November 3rd 2020 and March 1st 2021?	Binary
16.204	Will the first post from Instagram’s official account @instagram after this question closes be a photograph or video of an instagram user?	Binary
15.798	By January 2021, will Consumer Confidence in the United States return to optimism?	Binary
15.427	Will Netanyahu remain Israeli's Prime Minister till the end of 2020?	Binary
15.228	Will at least 1 million COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
15.033	How many deaths related to COVID-19 will be reported, as opposed to estimated, by WHO before 2021?	Continuous
15.012	Will UK schools close before the Christmas Holiday?	Binary
14.955	What will be the popular vote difference in 2020 between the Republican candidate and the highest polling alternative candidate?	Continuous
14.892	What will be the difference in July 2020 performance between the HFR Women Index and the HFR 500 Fund-Weighted Composite Index?	Continuous
14.774	What proportion of Senate Republican incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
14.707	When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
14.610	Will a RNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate be approved for use in the United States or European Union before 2022?	Binary
14.344	Will the median prediction on this question fall in range [1-48]% OR [95-99]%?	Binary
13.446	By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?	Binary
13.299	Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?	Binary
13.236	How much higher will the annual mean surface air temperature be in 2020, relative to the 1951-1980 base period?	Continuous
12.917	On 1 January 2021, will the rate of new confirmed deaths per million from COVID-19 in Sweden be higher than Denmark?	Binary
12.750	Will the S&P 500 close higher in 2020 than 2019?	Binary
12.484	Will (at least one) magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake strike California in 2020?	Binary
12.460	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
12.412	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in November?	Continuous
12.317	What will US dining activity be in September 2020?	Continuous
11.714	Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?	Binary
11.469	Will the CZU Lightning Complex be ranked ahead of the LNU Lightning Complex on the destructiveness list once both are extinguished?	Binary
11.417	How many people will die due to Ebola infection as a result of the Équateur Province Ebola outbreak before January 1 2021?	Continuous
11.280	If Trump is not re-elected President, what will the value of the S&P 500 be on January 1, 2021?	Continuous
10.868	Will Biden drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
10.555	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-10-25 through 2020-10-31?	Continuous
10.365	How many episodes of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast will be released in the run-up to the US 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
10.038	Will Wayne Hsiung be elected mayor of Berkeley in 2020?	Binary
9.499	Will there be an authentic leaked tape that costs Trump major public support in 2020?	Binary
9.408	What will the US Q2 2020 GDP growth rate be, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
9.209	In the year 2020, will no gene drive be launched to fight malaria-carrying mosquitoes in any part of the world?	Binary
9.057	Will Harvard University open classes on September 2, 2020?	Binary
8.972	Will any states flip from the current projected winner?	Binary
8.745	Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
8.605	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a 2020 presidential debate against each other?	Binary
8.192	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U % change from October (less energy and food) in November 2020?	Continuous
8.117	How many judges will the US Senate confirm in 2020?	Continuous
7.957	Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?	Binary
7.443	How many scientific journals will use Registered Reports at the end of 2020?	Continuous
7.356	How many geoengineering-related papers will be published in the year 2020?	Continuous
7.009	Will Apple's market cap drop below $1 trillion before 1 February 2021?	Binary
6.746	Will Art Basel occur on September 17 to September 20 2020	Binary
6.557	Will remdesivir be administered to at least 50,000 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US, UK, EU member states, and Japan, by the end of 2020?	Binary
6.528	Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?	Binary
6.406	Will the Democrats hold the US House of Representatives in the 2020 Election?	Binary
6.336	Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
6.031	Will the US see a massive riot in 2020?	Binary
5.925	Will Amazon ($AMZN) make a public offer to acquire FedEx ($FDX) by June 30, 2020?	Binary
5.820	Will Donald Trump's first term end before the next supreme court appointment?	Binary
5.561	Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
5.319	[Short Fuse] Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW by 1 December 2020?	Binary
5.319	How many COVID-19 cases in the US federal legislature will be publicly reported before 2021?	Continuous
5.138	How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2020 presidential election?	Continuous
5.112	How much karma will the top LessWrong post in 2020 have?	Continuous
4.993	Will the US see widespread rioting in 2020?	Binary
4.915	If Trump loses the election, will he contest the results?	Binary
4.789	Will there be a US-Iran war in 2020?	Binary
4.596	Will California pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors?	Binary
4.558	Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?	Binary
4.486	[Short Fuse] When will the global Garmin system outage be resolved?	Continuous
4.407	Will a major network call the election prematurely?	Binary
4.266	Will the GOP hold the Senate on January 3rd 2021?	Binary
4.138	Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic?	Binary
4.085	How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2021?	Continuous
4.062	Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2020?	Binary
3.744	Will early 2020 AI solve at least 20% of previously unseen IQ-test like tasks?	Binary
3.676	What will the LBMA Gold price be in US dollars on December 31 2020?	Continuous
3.523	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of August?	Continuous
3.509	Will EA Global London 2020 be cancelled or rescheduled due to COVID-19?	Binary
3.384	Will Republicans win both halves of Congress + Presidency in the US 2020 Election?	Binary
3.251	Will a TikTok user hit 100m followers by the end of 2020?	Binary
3.206	Will the Q2 2020 Delinquency Rate on Residential Mortgages be higher than that in Q1 2020?	Binary
3.125	What will the total retail sales including food services be for November 2020?	Continuous
2.990	In the 2020 US presidential election, will Kanye West win more votes in any state than the difference between the first and second place finishers in that state?	Binary
2.822	Will Elon Musk's baby's name, X Æ A - 12, turn out to be his real name?	Binary
2.790	Will proposition 16 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
2.788	Will a US civilian intentionally be shot and killed by US military personnel acting in the line of duty on domestic soil before 2021?	Binary
2.656	When will the SpaceX Demo-2 launch?	Continuous
2.614	Will any state send multiple certificates of electors following the 2020 election?	Binary
2.574	Will Three Gorges Dam collapse and kill at least 10,000 people in 2020?	Binary
2.534	Will Stefan Molyneux receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
2.483	Will Israel annex the Jordan Valley in the West Bank by the end of 2020?	Binary
2.479	US invades and attempts a regime change in Iran in 2020?	Binary
2.329	Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?	Binary
2.178	Will California have a wildfire among the 10 most destructive in state history in 2020?	Binary
1.882	Will China fail to curtail its internment camps programs for Uyghurs and Muslims in 2020?	Binary
1.825	Will at least 200,000 COVID-19 deaths be reported in any single calendar month in 2020?	Binary
1.670	[Short Fuse]: Will Joe Biden announce Kamala Harris as his running mate in the 2020 presidential election before August 20 2020?	Binary
1.530	What percentage of seats will Labour hold after the 2020 New Zealand general election?	Continuous
1.103	How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?	Continuous
0.992	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for November 2020?	Continuous
0.757	Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?	Binary
0.741	Before 2020-05-17, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
0.656	[Short Fuse] Will the Three Gorges Dam experience a partial failure before the end of September?	Binary
0.565	Will the border conflict between India and China escalate to a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives before 2021?	Binary
0.541	Will Edward Snowden receive a federal pardon by January 20th 2021?	Binary
0.508	Will New York State's 14 day moving average of daily cases rise above 3000 again by the end of 2020?	Binary
0.382	Will facial recognition be banned in at least 3 more U.S. cities in 2020?	Binary
0.306	What will be the US unemployment rate for April 2020?	Continuous
0.184	Will the border conflict between India and China result in a death before 2021?	Binary
0.147	[Short Fuse] Will Amy Coney Barrett be confirmed to the Supreme Court before election day 2020?	Binary
0.142	Did UNCW professor Mike Adams die by suicide?	Binary
0.115	Will Francisco Partners / Evergreen complete its acquisition of LogMeIn (LOGM) before June 01, 2020?	Binary
-0.047	Will the recipient of the 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics work for a top cited scholastic institution?	Binary
-0.050	If president Trump loses the 2020 election, will he concede?	Binary
-0.517	What proportion of 2020 U.S. House of Representatives elections without a running incumbent will be won by Republicans?	Continuous
-0.570	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party nominee for president of the United States on election day 2020?	Binary
-0.780	Will the 25th amendment of the US constitution be invoked before November 3rd?	Binary
-1.154	Will a woman be the Democratic candidate for Vice-President of the USA in 2020?	Binary
-1.259	Will the US hold mass-turnout elections for President on schedule in 2020?	Binary
-1.321	Will the WHO or North Korean Government confirm any COVID-19 cases in North Korea by 2020-05-17?	Binary
-1.416	[Short Fuse] Will the UK's Intelligence and Security committee publish the report into Russian interference by the end of July?	Binary
-1.440	Will China Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd. complete an acquisition of Genworth (GNW) before July 1, 2020?	Binary
-1.499	On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?	Binary
-1.700	When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?	Continuous
-2.624	Will most UK schools reopen in time for the 2020-2021 academic year?	Binary
-2.784	What proportion of Senate Democratic incumbents will be defeated in the 2020 election?	Continuous
-3.093	Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-3.385	By how many votes will the losing party fall short of winning control of the Senate in the 2020 Senate elections?	Continuous
-3.401	Will California Senate Bill 902 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-3.598	Will more than one entrant achieve a perfect score in the 2020 IMO in St. Petersburg?	Binary
-3.715	[short fuse] Will an opposition party win a new GRC in Singapore’s 2020 general election?	Binary
-3.764	Will proposition 21 be passed in the 2020 California election?	Binary
-3.790	If Trump loses the election in 2020, will he maintain that he is still the president on January 21st 2021?	Binary
-3.792	Will JHU CSSE's COVID-19 dashboard remain open and maintained through 2020-12-31?	Binary
-5.408	Will a third-party candidate get more than 5% of the popular vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election?	Binary
-5.747	Will 2020’s UK Christmas #1 be a joke?	Binary
-5.910	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong before Summer 2020?	Binary
-6.332	What will the US employment to population ratio be in May 2020?	Continuous
-6.474	How will Trump's popular vote share compare to FiveThirtyEight's prediction?	Continuous
-6.600	[Short fuse] Will 538's election forecast rate Trump's chances higher than the forecast from The Economist?	Binary
-10.447	Will Kim Jong-un be officially confirmed dead before May 15 2020?	Binary
-10.745	Industrial Production Index in September 2020	Continuous
-11.284	Will the next winner of the Booker Prize be female?	Binary
-11.403	Will the “unknown pneumonia” outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?	Binary
-11.636	How many consumer electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in 2020?	Continuous
-12.665	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-14.030	What percent of ballots casting votes on Oregon's Psilocybin Program Initiative will vote in favor?	Continuous
-14.040	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-14.444	What will the May 2020 US nonfarm payrolls figure be?	Continuous
-14.874	Will US forces shoot unarmed protesters in 2020?	Binary
-18.597	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-19.475	Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?	Binary
-19.572	What will be the US U-6 unemployment rate for May 2020?	Continuous
-19.626	Will at least 500 Indians die in clashes along the border with the Chinese military before 2021?	Binary
-20.455	How many thousand cattle will be slaughtered in Australia in Q4 2020?	Continuous
-27.286	Will California Assembly Bill 3155 be chaptered in the 2020 legislative session?	Binary
-27.554	[Short-Fuse] Will AbstractSpyTreeBot win the Darwin Game on Lesswrong?	Binary
-29.222	What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in December?	Continuous
-30.437	Industrial Production Index in October 2020	Continuous
-34.348	When will an efficacious COVID-19 vaccine obtain emergency use authorization in the United States?	Continuous
-38.485	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede?	Continuous
-42.344	Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?	Binary
-45.221	Before December 25th, 2020, will cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceed 12 million?	Binary
-45.371	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-45.657	Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?	Binary
-48.295	Will Dominic Cummings still be Chief Adviser to Boris Johnson at the end of his first term?	Binary
-62.036	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-62.984	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous
-78.525	How much transit activity will there be in New York City in the last week of June?	Continuous
-82.997	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2020-12-20 through 2020-12-26?	Continuous
-83.583	What will the top Android phone score be on Passmark on January 1st 2021? [12k - 24k range]	Continuous
-149.062	How many named tropical storms will there be in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season?	Continuous
-154.943	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?	Continuous