TeeJayKay

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2021-22

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

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14.23	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.696	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
94.174	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
75.521	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
70.329	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
64.399	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
60.867	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
60.320	When will total nonfarm employees in Virginia exceed 4 million?	Continuous
58.991	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
55.884	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
54.327	What will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
52.479	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
51.651	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
49.288	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
48.275	What will be the percentage of the 5-11 year olds vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
47.833	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
45.998	When will be the UK’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
45.853	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
45.577	When will the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
43.672	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (India)	Binary
41.943	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
40.761	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
38.567	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
35.729	What percentage of Virginians will have received a booster dose as of 4 May 2022?	Continuous
34.757	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
34.648	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
34.036	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
33.963	What will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
33.930	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 21st of January, 2022?	Continuous
32.834	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
31.575	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
31.255	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
29.526	When will the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases be reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
29.067	How many new building permits will be authorized in the SF metro area in 2022?	Continuous
27.717	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
27.717	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
26.044	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
25.870	How many of Virginia's 133 communities will be experiencing moderate or higher levels of community transmission as of 7 March 2022?	Continuous
25.774	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
25.420	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
25.216	What will be the percentage of the population vaccinated with at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on January 21st, 2022?	Continuous
24.633	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
23.537	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
23.254	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
23.043	What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
22.721	How many Virginians (thousands) will be employed in leisure and hospitality services in April 2022?	Continuous
22.509	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
22.488	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
22.426	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
21.968	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
21.929	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
21.072	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
20.944	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
20.748	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
20.408	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
19.559	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
19.536	What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
19.380	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Ukraine)	Binary
18.968	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
18.864	How much will a pound of fresh beef cost in cents in January 2023?	Continuous
18.651	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
18.571	When will VDH’s frequency of COVID-19 case reporting switch to weekly or less?	Continuous
18.508	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
18.291	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable cases occur?	Continuous
17.771	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
17.716	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
17.527	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
17.064	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
17.048	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
16.332	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
16.065	When will Japan reopen for quarantine-free international tourism?	Continuous
15.640	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
15.033	When will the CDC eliminate quarantine restrictions for close contacts of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
14.555	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
14.058	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
13.765	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
13.468	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
13.146	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
12.449	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
11.814	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases fall below 1015?	Continuous
11.553	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
11.462	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
11.424	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
10.903	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
10.381	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
10.358	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
10.227	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
9.941	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
9.558	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
9.486	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
9.257	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
8.999	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
8.770	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
8.630	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
8.014	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
8.013	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
7.799	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
7.787	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
6.994	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
6.943	When will the FDA authorize an oral antiviral treatment for SARS-CoV-2?	Continuous
6.922	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
6.849	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
6.737	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
6.468	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
6.318	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
6.172	What will be the lowest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between December 24th, 2021 and March 18th, 2022?	Continuous
5.812	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
5.241	When will Virginia’s weekly total of new confirmed and probable COVID-19 hospitalizations fall below 49?	Continuous
4.559	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
4.438	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
4.167	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
3.804	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
3.647	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
2.924	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
2.911	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
2.896	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
2.793	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
2.718	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
2.567	What will Virginia's percent unemployment rate be in April 2022?	Continuous
2.522	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
2.427	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
2.226	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
2.131	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
2.049	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
2.044	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
1.958	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
1.947	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
1.808	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
1.787	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
1.745	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
1.532	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
1.464	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
1.448	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
1.041	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
0.921	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
0.891	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
0.680	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 18th of February, 2022?	Continuous
0.584	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
0.531	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
0.296	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
0.183	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
0.091	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
0.066	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
0.035	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
0.001	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
-0.000	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-0.031	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-0.116	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
-0.385	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
-0.805	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
-1.055	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
-1.058	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
-1.156	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
-2.423	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
-2.774	Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again?	Binary
-3.034	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
-3.038	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-3.254	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.369	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
-4.172	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-4.500	How many emergency department overdose visits will there be in Q1 2022 in Virginia?	Continuous
-6.359	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-6.562	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
-7.509	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
-7.914	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
-8.936	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
-11.198	How many influenza-associated pediatric deaths will there be in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-11.580	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
-11.592	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
-11.626	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
-15.964	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-16.508	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-17.058	How many State of AI Report 2021 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2022 report?	Continuous
-20.252	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
-22.007	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
-23.820	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
-35.089	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
-36.256	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous